The Persian Gulf is the most consequential body of water in the global economy. Its narrow exit — the Strait of Hormuz, just 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point — acts as a valve through which flows an extraordinary share of the world’s energy and agricultural inputs. A sustained closure of that valve by Iran will trigger an economic shock with few historical precedents. Let’s look at the three commodity categories most exposed to such a disruption: crude oil and refined petroleum...





















