The US war with Iran has moved beyond its initial phase to an emerging new one — one in which Iran implicitly stakes its chances on the next phase being war. Most likely this will be in abbreviated episodes of limited war, but possessing nevertheless a potential to widen regionally, should the US (and Israel) elect to sharply escalate. The new phase involves risk of course, yet Iran holds the high cards of an ability to impose disproportionately heavier damage upon Gulf infrastructure as...

Seemingly, every day brings breathless new claims that an U.S.-Iran “deal” awaits only a signature. As so often happens, the mediators (Pakistanis and Qataris) hope to manage both sides by telling one side that the other party is at the brink of agreement when it is not so, especially in an atmosphere of total mistrust. By these means the mediators hope to push matters towards a final agreement. It is a familiar tactic, but one that quite often results in confusion and distrust – rather than...