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Ukraine - The Big Push To End The War

Thursday January 5, 2023

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Over Christmas I had a short talk with a relative about the war in Ukraine. He asked me who would win and was astonished when I said: "Ukraine has zero chance to win." That person reads some German mainstream news sites and watches the public TV networks. With those sources of 'information' he was made to believe that Ukraine was winning the war.
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Are There Any US Red Lines?

Tuesday January 3, 2023

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The Biden administration has so far refrained from sending longer range missile to Ukraine. It fears a severe Russian reaction should it change that policy. Some warmongers dislike such sensible restrain.

In today's New York Times some former British diplomat, now working for a pro-war think tank, is arguing for the delivery of longer range weapons to Ukraine.

"Putin Has No Red Lines

What are Putin’s red lines?”

"This question, asked with growing urgency as Russia loses its war in Ukraine but does not relent in its aggressions, is intended to offer analytical clarity and to guide policy. In reality, it is the wrong question, because “red line” is a bad metaphor. Red lines are red herrings. There are better ways to think about strategy."

Red lines, where a consequence is threatened when an opponent does a specified escalating move, do not really exists, says the author. Red lines are movable, responding to a red line violation is a cost to the one who drew the line and red lines invite deceptions - says the author.
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Death Of Nuclear Deal With Iran Adds To Biden's Failures In U.S. Foreign Policy

Wednesday December 21, 2022

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When the Biden administration came into office it had promised to reenter into the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran. Under Trump the US had left the deal and had reissued sanctions against Iran. Tehran followed up by increasing its enrichment capabilities and by accumulating more enriched Uranium.

It would have been easy for Biden to immediately eliminate the sanctions and to rejoin the deal. Iran would surely have followed up by returning to the enrichment levels the deal allows for.

But Biden bungled the issue. For months nothing happened. Then he send negotiators to Iran who demanded additional concessions by Iran while offering less sanction relief. Iran rejected that. It demanded that Biden guarantees that the US would stick to the deal under future administrations. The negotiations were drawn out and made little progress.

The European Union, which is part of the JCPOA deal, finally wrote a compromise draft agreement which was submitted to the Iranian negotiators in Vienna. Iran made some small changes to the draft and send it back. The EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell publicly said that Iran's changes were "reasonable" and that he hoped for a quick US agreement to the draft. But the Biden administration, which worried about the midterm elections, called the Iranian changes "not constructive" and rejected the draft agreement.
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EU Pushes For More Sanctions Which Will Come Back To Bite It

Thursday October 6, 2022

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On February 22, two days before Russian troops entered the Ukraine, the US and the EU put reams of sanctions onto Russia. They also confiscated some $300 billion of Russia's reserves that were invested in the 'west'. The sanctions had been negotiated between the EU and the US and prepared for over several months.

The idea was to bankrupt Russia within a few weeks. The deluded people behind those sanctions had no idea how big and sanctions proved Russia's economy really is. The sanctions failed to influence Russia in any way but their consequences led to a shortfall of energy in Europe and increased the already high inflation rates. Inflation in Russia is sinking and its general economic numbers are good. The now higher energy prices generate sufficient additional income to completely finance its war efforts.

A sane actor would conclude that the sanctions were a mistake and that lifting them would help Europe more than it would help Russia. But no, the US and European pseudo elites are no longer able to act in a sane manner. They are instead doubling down with the most crazy sanction scheme one has ever heard of...
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No, Iran Will Not Deliver Armed Drones To Russia

Tuesday July 12, 2022

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In March this year we were treated to an onslaught of obviously false claims that China would deliver weapons to Russia for the fight in Ukraine.

Russia seeks military equipment and aid from China, US officials say - Washington Post - March 13, 2022

"Russia has turned to China for military equipment and aid in the weeks since it began its invasion of Ukraine, US officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.

"The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, did not describe what kind of weaponry had been requested, or whether they know how China responded.

"The development comes as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan plans to travel to Rome on Monday to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi.

“'We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions, evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,' Sullivan told CNN."

Russia is an exporter of military weapons and China is one of its biggest customers. There is nothing in the Chinese arsenals that Russia can not and does not produce itself.
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How Russia Can (And Will?) De-NATO-ize Europe

Monday June 6, 2022

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In a video published yesterday Gonzalo Lire, currently under house arrest in Karkov, is asking a very interesting question:

What Happens To Europe When Russia Wins? (vid)

Lira states, and I agree with him, that Russia will win the war in the Ukraine, take the south and east to likely create a new country and leave the rest of the cadaver for Poland, Hungary, Romania, Lithuania and others to feast on.

But then what?

The US controlled NATO will still be there. It is practically guaranteed that the US will use it to push for revenge for the loss of Ukraine. This will be done by a steady buildup of troops and long range missile capabilities along Russia's Nordic and Baltic borders and additional naval threats in the northern Arctic as well as the southern Black Sea. Some ten years from now the US would be able to again try to wage a big (proxy) war against Russia. Then with a decent chance to win.

No negotiations or peace agreements will prevent that. The US is famously non-agreement-capable (недоговороспособны). It has broken ALL promises and agreements it has ever made with Russia.
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Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?

Wednesday April 20, 2022

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Russian and Donbas forces have cleared the city of Mariupol except for the giant metallurgic complex of Azovstal which is held by some estimated 4,000 men, including many from the fascist Azov battalion.

On Sunday Russia opened corridors across the front line and asked for those forces to surrender. However the Zelensky government ordered them to stay and to continue to bind Russian forces which otherwise could be used elsewhere:

"Russia had given the Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol until Sunday morning to lay down their weapons or be “eliminated.” On Sunday, the forces at the plant ignored the deadline, and Ukrainian officials vowed that they would not surrender. In response, the Russian assault intensified, with missiles and bombs hitting the city and new attacks occurring near the plant, according to the Ukrainian military.
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"Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that the struggle was not over for Mariupol, which for two months has tied up Russian troops and resources that are badly needed elsewhere."

The Azovstal complex is a 2 by 2 miles industrial area. It can be surrounded and controlled by a relatively small force. Those within the area no longer have heavy artillery ammunition and presumably little other supplies. The Russian forces can see and bomb anything that moves on the open ground and can otherwise sit back and wait their enemies out.
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US Sends Nuclear Submarine To Harass Russia Near Japan

Saturday February 12, 2022

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Since October 30 2021 the U.S. is warning of a Russian military buildup and a potential invasion of the Ukraine.

Over the last days the screaming over Russian exercises on Russian grounds has again increased. The U.S. Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense have both called their Russian counterparts. President Biden will later today call President Putin.

But if the situation is really as dire as the U.S. claims why is it doing this (machine translation)?

"An American submarine entered Russian territorial waters in the Kuriles region, and special means were used against it, the Ministry of Defense said.

"'On February 12, 2022, at 10:40 Moscow time, a U.S. Navy submarine of the Virginia type was discovered in the area of ​​the planned exercise of the Pacific Fleet forces in the territorial waters of the Russian Federation near Urup Island of the Kuril Ridge,' the agency said.

"The crew of the submarine was given a message in Russian and English via underwater communication: 'You are in the territorial waters of Russia. Surface immediately!'

"The foreign warship ignored the demand."
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The Mediocracy Of 'Global Britain'

Friday February 11, 2022

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The knowledge and quality of 'western' leading officials is of serious concern. They are often politicians with no experience in the fields they are supposed to represent.

Liz Truss, currently the Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, is a sad example.

It is said that the job of the foreign secretary has something to do with geography. To know where this or that country is and what its surroundings are is supposedly helpful when one wants wage war or peace with or against them.

Liz Truss had failed in this category when, a week ago, she said: "We are offering extra supplies and support into our Baltic allies across the Black Sea." The Black Sea is some 700 miles away from the Baltic states.

Today Liz Truss endorsed another occasion to fail when she visited Russia to talk about the Russian non-attack on the Ukraine only to get mocked by its very experienced Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
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The Failure Of This Week's US-NATO-Russia Meetings Make War More Likely

Saturday January 15, 2022

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In the late 1990s the US military-industrial-media complex lobbied the Clinton administration to extend NATO. The sole purpose was to win more customers for US weapons. Russia protested. It had offered to integrate itself into a new European security architecture but on equal terms with the US The US rejected that. It wanted Russia to subordinate itself to US whims.

Since then NATO has been extended five times and moved closer and closer to Russia's border. Leaving Russia, a large country with many resources, outside of Europe's security structure guaranteed that Russia would try to come back from the miserable 1990s and regain its former power.

In 2014 the US sponsored a coup against the democratically elected government of the Ukraine, Russia's neighbor and relative, and installed its proxies. To prevent an eventual integration of the Ukraine into NATO Russia arranged for an uprising against the coup in the eastern Ukraine. As long as the Ukraine has an internal conflict it can not join NATO.

In 2018 the Trump administration withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty which had been created under the Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan to eliminate nuclear missiles in Europe. Now the US made plans to station new nuclear missiles in Europe which would threaten Russia. These required a Russian response.
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