What was once the Current Thing has become a massive liability.
Europe is staring down the potential for a continental “Dark Winter,” and as each month passes, fewer countries aligned with the Biden Administration seem willing to maintain the appetite for perpetual warfare over who gets to control Ukraine.
This ruling class squabble has devastated the lives of hundreds of millions of ordinary citizens, but that didn’t change the trajectory of the conflict. It was only when the war effort became deeply unpopular did this consensus change. Poll-testing politicians are keenly aware that in both America and Europe, there is no longer a steady support for delegating untold billions in taxpayer funds and rhetorical support to this campaign.
What does this mean for the war in Ukraine? Don’t be surprised for a conclusion to the Russia-Ukraine conflict sooner rather than later.
Two realities that are worth paying attention to moving forward:
1) Ukraine is losing, and there are no signs that they can turn the tide of the war
After being pushed back from Kiev in the early days of the war, filling the news media and US/EU politicians with large doses of hopium, the Russian military has narrowed its focus on strategically vital and resource rich areas of Eastern Ukraine. In doing so, Moscow has remained dominant on the battlefield, thanks in large part to its ability to overpower Ukrainian forces with its artillery arsenal. The Zelensky led government is losing, and NATO armies don’t want to continue depreciating their own arsenals to assist in the propping up of its failing client.
Ukrainian artillery outnumbered eight to one by Russia- foreign legion https://t.co/PL8C3JFudB pic.twitter.com/4BwWWuXGdU
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 11, 2022
In addition to its continuing battlefield supremacy, Russia now has time on its side, thanks to the booming commodity market and Russia’s many willing energy buyers.
Russia snagged $24 billion in just three months from its energy sales to India and China, report says https://t.co/BXHKYTv6QI
— Markets Insider (@MktsInsider) July 6, 2022
Ukraine is in the polar opposite situation. Kiev is becoming a massive financial liability for the West. Even as Western powers have already allocated over 100 billions dollars in weapons and aid to Ukraine, the Zelensky-led government continues to demand incredible sums to sustain the war effort.
In some underreported signal that surfaced over the weekend:
Germany (which largely controls the EU’s finances) has reportedly been blocking a $9 billion dollar tranche to the Zelensky regime, concerned over the country’s ability to remain solvent.
#Germany is blocking the allocation of €9 billion in aid to #Ukraine from EU, writes Corriere della Sera. According to them, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner opposes financing this aid from the common European debt, as it was during the pandemic.https://t.co/XqyZAezi67
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 10, 2022
2) The US-led sanctions regime is collapsing
The US-led sanctions campaign against Russia is not working, and worse, it’s backfiring. The sanctions have transformed an already troubling global energy environment into a full blown crisis.
And nowhere is that crisis more imminent than in Europe.
For the first time Euro 💶 is worth less than US Dollar 💵
This is what happens when an entire continent 🇪🇺 decides to commit mass economic suicide on the altar of wokeness.
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) July 11, 2022
Europe is in such bad shape right now that their ESG-approved, climate hoaxing eco justice warrior politicians are desperately trying to fire up coal (!) power plants before the lights go out across the continent.
Germany planned to decommission 11 coal fired power plants in November as part of its incredible green energy transition.
Instead, Germany to decide on keeping those 11 open and reactivate 17 more dormant coal & oil fuel power plants for the winter. https://t.co/Ku4ZK1f809
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 11, 2022
Meanwhile, Russia continues to capitalize on Europe’s energy vulnerability.
The Kremlin is leveraging its energy dominance to put immense pressure on European powers. On Monday, the state-run Gazprom took down its Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe for a minimum 10 days, citing “maintenance.” Europe isn’t buying the rhetoric. Moscow’s intentions are crystal clear.
Western energy majors will cut output and lose billions of dollars if Russia, as is feared, suspends a pipeline that is almost the only export route for oil from land-locked Kazakhstan, company sources, traders and analysts say https://t.co/y0r4WqdXnk
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 11, 2022
In hindsight, it should be clear by now that the sanctions never had a chance of achieving the stated objective of bankrupting the Russian economy and slowing its military. China, India, and dozens of other countries remained neutral and continued to trade openly with Moscow. Despite US pressure, they did not even consider joining the sanctions effort.
As US sanctions against Russia continue to collapse, the Biden Admin may find itself being able to count the remaining parties to the coalition on one hand.
With all of these continuing crises, coupled with a historic failure on the part of the Biden Administration, don’t be shocked if the war in Ukraine comes to an end sooner rather than later.
Reprinted with permission from The Dossier.
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