While diplomats labored to produce the Dayton Accords in 1995, then-Secretary of Defense Bill Perry advised, “No agreement is better than a bad agreement.” Given that Washington’s allies in London, Paris, Berlin and Warsaw are opposed to any outcome that might end the war in Ukraine, no agreement may be preferable. But for President Trump, there is no point in equating the illusion of peace in Ukraine with a meaningless ceasefire that settles nothing.
Today, Ukraine is mired in corruption, starting at the very highest levels of the administration in Kyiv. Sending $175 billion of borrowed money there “for however long it takes” has turned out to be worse than reckless. The U.S. national sovereign debt is surging to nearly $38 trillion and rising by $425 billion with each passing month. President Trump needs to turn his attention away from funding Joe Biden’s wars and instead focus on the faltering American economy.
President Trump should make it clear that the Biden administration’s determination to help build a Ukrainian military establishment designed to wage offensive war against Russia rather than engage in the diplomacy necessary to avoid it before 2022 was a serious strategic error. Washington’s European allies are fundamentally wrong when they insist that Moscow had no right to challenge an existential threat from NATO on its border. Without the decades-long project of transferring technology, advice and cash to Ukraine, the threat to Russia in Ukraine might not have emerged.
President Trump’s recent decision to reexamine the wisdom of shipping Tomahawk missiles for use in Ukraine is a step in the right direction. Just as Washington has legitimate interests in Mexico and the Caribbean Basin, it is time for Washington to recognize Moscow’s legitimate national security interests in regards to Ukraine and NATO member states in its own backyard. It is also time for Europe and the U.S. to realize that stability in the region is of everyone’s interest, and that means not encouraging, through endless war, a failed state in Ukraine.
Hopefully, President Trump was finally briefed on America’s missile inventory. His reticence to send Tomahawks that cannot operate without American mission planning and execution suggests that he and his staff may have also asked for the status of more vital missile systems such as the family of Standard Missiles. The exact numbers for the American missile inventory are unknown, but President Trump should demand detailed answers.
It’s also vital for him to understand that regardless of how much pressure he exerts on America’s defense industrial base to increase production, timelines for delivery will not change much. Wars are fought with precision strike weapons. The side with the most missiles on hand at the outset stands an excellent chance of prevailing. The side with too few will lose.
American military power is in a state of decline that will require a decade or more to reverse. In pursuit of true military strength, President Trump should not conflate the eagerness of his senior military leaders to comply with his policies or ideas as evidence of loyalty, professionalism or agreement. In Washington, DC, there is never a shortage of sycophantic, blowhard generals and admirals whose own experience with real war is at best at a cocktail level of familiarity.
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