Eight years ago this month I commented that “I would not be surprised to see the US government legalize marijuana within the next five years.” That conclusion came upon my consideration of the then 64 percent nationwide support for legalization among Americans who had been recently polled by Gallup, plus — for the first time — majority support among Republicans.
Since then, support for legalization has come in even higher among Americans generally and Republicans. A 2023 Gallup poll measured support for marijuana legalization up another six percent to reach 70 percent of Americans. Support among Republicans came in at 55 percent — up four percent from the 2017 Gallup poll.
Currently, there is much speculation regarding what may be the result of the Trump administration’s ongoing review of whether marijuana should be moved from the most restrictive Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) to Schedule II or Schedule III that progressively relax government prohibition. Leaving marijuana where it is in the CSA would be an affront to legalization proponents, while even dropping marijuana down to Schedule III that allows much medical use but still retains many aspects of the war on marijuana would be underwhelming.
President Donald Trump and Republican leadership in the United States House of Representatives and Senate may garner a major benefit for their party if they enact marijuana legalization within the next twelve months instead of continuing to keep in place the unpopular prohibitionary policy. Trump could announce soon the move of marijuana down to Schedule III, but the major news could be his concurrent announcement that he and Republican congressional leaders will be working on enacting legislation in the next few months that will bring about national marijuana legalization and an end altogether the US government’s war on marijuana.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has argued that the Republican House leadership may have prevented the loss of the Republican House majority in the November 2018 election if the leadership had previously allowed members to approve in a floor vote leaving marijuana law up to the states. Maybe taking such action soon in the House and Senate would benefit Republican congressional contenders in the November of 2026 election, With marijuana legalization popular, making it a reality may be a wild card Republicans can play to keep their House and Senate majorities.
