The US war with Iran has moved beyond its initial phase to an emerging new one — one in which Iran implicitly stakes its chances on the next phase being war. Most likely this will be in abbreviated episodes of limited war, but possessing nevertheless a potential to...
Seemingly, every day brings breathless new claims that an U.S.-Iran “deal” awaits only a signature. As so often happens, the mediators (Pakistanis and Qataris) hope to manage both sides by telling one side that the other party is at the brink of agreement when it is...
Professor Sergei Karaganov has written a paper – How to Win a World War – that advocates a limited nuclear strike on an adversary by Russia, as the means of preventing a World War. On the face of it, this may seem to be an oxymoron – a nuclear strike precisely done to...
Both Trump’s Iran war and the closely connected Israeli war for Jewish hegemony across the Middle East (termed “Permanent Security” in Israeli military vernacular) are unravelling fast. Iran is standing defiant in the face of Trump and Israel’s threats, leaving Trump...
Although the Iran war largely has been viewed through the lens of conventional western warfare, its lessons are anything but conventional. They are in fact insurrectionary. The post-war western approach (especially in the Cold War context) relied on the ability...
Putting two sides together — let alone three — who have wildly diverse chronicles of their histories and even less commonality in charting their future national trajectory was innately unlikely to reach an agreed settlement. More likely in such ill-prepared encounters...
Some fifteen years ago I wrote that western reliance on its lens of secular rationality was no longer adequate as a means to understand the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was becoming obvious — even then — that the future of the region would be one of wars...
We are entering upon a new stage to this war on Iran. It may not be what many expect (especially in financial markets). Yesterday Trump said inter alia that Hormuz was open and that Iran had agreed never to close Hormuz again; that Iran, with the help of the US, has...
The temporary cessation of hostilities across West Asia very much hangs in the balance. Originally, there was to be a cessation of military actions across “all fronts” including Lebanon — that being one of the ten Iranian preconditions to negotiations towards a...
Bloomberg: “It is arguably Iran that has secured the most significant strategic victory … There is every sign that Tehran’s ability to control the Strait is increasing” The defeats which the West keeps on having “[are] above all … intellectual.” And “not being able to...
The short answer is “no.” Trump was confabulating when he said that he was already in negotiations with “important” Iranians. There is a back history to the US’ “negotiations narrative.” In earlier rounds of “negotiations” centred on the Ukraine conflict, Trump...
Western propaganda machinery – the West’s most powerful strategic weapon – has repeatedly asserted that US forces have been winning a swift and sweeping victory over Iran. In tandem, Israeli intelligence officials are briefing western media saying they see increasing...
The US-Israeli stand-off air-strike model of waging war is being challenged by a quite different strategic asymmetric war – one first planned by Iran more than 20 years ago. This is important to understand when trying to judge where the war balance sheet truly lies....
Thursday’s diplomatic negotiations (26 Feb) – for all the panglossian noise from mediators and negotiators – confirmed the essential impasse. The US demands presented to Iran were: The complete dismantling of the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites. The transfer...
We now can see more clearly the Trump Administration’s chosen path: In the wake of Davos and Munich, we have some light – both on Trump’s towering ambitions, and the means by which he hopes to achieve them. It may nonetheless be too late. Past policies shackle...
It is not a glitch (that nothing gets resolved). It’s a feature. For it opens rather, a path for “Business” to be done – for “stakeholder” deals to be cut, and for billions to be shared out in payoffs. This is Trump’s geo-political transactional model: Business...
After Epstein, nothing can continue as before: Neither the post war “never again” values – reflecting sentiment at the end of bloody wars – and the widespread yearning for a “fairer” society; nor the bipolar economics of extreme disparities in wealth; nor trust –...
Over the past two weeks, two important messages were conveyed to Iran, both of which were rejected. One came from the US and the other from Israel. The former was: “We [the US] will carry out a limited attack and you should accept it; or at least, give only a symbolic...
To understand the background to events in Iran today, we need to retrace what I quoted US commentator & Trump biographer Michael Wolff saying last July about Trump’s thinking in connection with the impending attacks on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan enrichment...
So, finally an act of unvarnished predatory action by Trump and his team – the abduction of President Maduro in a lightning night-time military strike – has launched 2026 into a pivotal moment. A pivotal moment not just for Latin America, but for global politics. The...
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