We are on a path to more war. Trump could (and should) have declared victory and simply walked away from Iran, but that would have cast him as “a loser” (a prospect that he cannot tolerate). But secondly, he is — for whatever reason — in thrall to Netanyahu and...
Past days have seen the European political classes turning up the volume to maximum on clearly concerted – and shared – speaking-notes: “War with Russia is coming; Russia intends to strike NATO; we must prepare; stock up on bottled water, tinned food, and be ready to...
Outline of a talk given at the Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 7 Sept 2026 The global future is often framed as being that of a muli-polar or multi-nodal world, with the implicit assumption that states would get along better – and would resolve their differences...
The 60-day MoU has expired. The framework of Iranian pre-conditions for any start to negotiations nonetheless lingers on in its comatose state. Instead of the endlessly touted “Iran deal,” the picture is almost the complete opposite of what President Trump sought to...
President Trump took Secretary of War Hegseth’s military cheerleading (“US military potency is awesome”) at face value, only belatedly to discover that the US is out of interceptors in a war that hinges on air defences. “The restock mathematics is just as cold. Four...
The silence surrounding the outcome to the Netanyahu meeting last week in the Oval Office speaks for itself. No American government official came to the airport to receive him, and no red carpet was laid out for him. The visit bombed. Israel is adrift – with its...
Trump ordered the US military not to carry out new strikes on Iran Friday night, despite approving earlier a “Gates of Hell massive attack” on Iran. The US has now requested a new temporary ceasefire with Iran and is seeking a return to the...
When the US Navy, in co-ordination with Qatar and Oman, tried to slip a convoy of four vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, via Omani waters, on Tuesday night – rather than pass via Iran’s officially approved route – Trump may have imagined (or been told) that with...
Plan “A” was to topple the Islamic Republic which was seen as nothing more than a fragile house of cards. That collapse – it was expected – would ripple through, and take down several connected Axis of Resistance fronts, according to the analysis of Mossad and...
The de-escalation framework that unfolded in the US-Iran Lucerne talks largely stayed true to the original Iranian 10-point plan. Meanwhile, President Trump and Vice-President Vance deliberately muddy the waters, claiming that Iran has already agreed to IAEA...
The Iran-US de-escalation framework has been signed. As always, getting a framework agreed is one thing, but preserving it from disruptive actors or malicious distortion of the text is quite another. Who knows how long it will survive intact? The MoU nonetheless...
Professor Michael Hudson, in a recent discussion, takes issue with those who speak today of the “decline of the US hegemon.” A decline implies something goes up and down, Hudson says, but it always recovers. “But there’s never been any such thing statistically as a...
The US war with Iran has moved beyond its initial phase to an emerging new one — one in which Iran implicitly stakes its chances on the next phase being war. Most likely this will be in abbreviated episodes of limited war, but possessing nevertheless a potential to...
Seemingly, every day brings breathless new claims that an U.S.-Iran “deal” awaits only a signature. As so often happens, the mediators (Pakistanis and Qataris) hope to manage both sides by telling one side that the other party is at the brink of agreement when it is...
Professor Sergei Karaganov has written a paper – How to Win a World War – that advocates a limited nuclear strike on an adversary by Russia, as the means of preventing a World War. On the face of it, this may seem to be an oxymoron – a nuclear strike precisely done to...
Both Trump’s Iran war and the closely connected Israeli war for Jewish hegemony across the Middle East (termed “Permanent Security” in Israeli military vernacular) are unravelling fast. Iran is standing defiant in the face of Trump and Israel’s threats, leaving Trump...
Although the Iran war largely has been viewed through the lens of conventional western warfare, its lessons are anything but conventional. They are in fact insurrectionary. The post-war western approach (especially in the Cold War context) relied on the ability...
Putting two sides together — let alone three — who have wildly diverse chronicles of their histories and even less commonality in charting their future national trajectory was innately unlikely to reach an agreed settlement. More likely in such ill-prepared encounters...
Some fifteen years ago I wrote that western reliance on its lens of secular rationality was no longer adequate as a means to understand the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was becoming obvious — even then — that the future of the region would be one of wars...
We are entering upon a new stage to this war on Iran. It may not be what many expect (especially in financial markets). Yesterday Trump said inter alia that Hormuz was open and that Iran had agreed never to close Hormuz again; that Iran, with the help of the US, has...
Support our upcoming set rebuild. We plan to improve our reach by amplifying the message.