I don’t know why Iran agreed to the ceasefire, but it did. Iranian leaders, in my opinion, are frighteningly naive. Some apparently believe that they can achieve a legitimate negotiated deal with Donald Trump. I suggest the Ayatollah and IRGC commanders read Donald Trump’s Truth Social posting regarding Bibi Netanyahu (see image). Despite Trump’s temper tantrum on Monday — when he dropped the F-bomb complaining about the ignorance of Iran and Israel — he still has his lips firmly planted on Bibi’s backside and will likely look for a pretext to continue the war with Iran.
While there is no doubt that Israel inflicted some serious damage on Iran by killing scores of military leaders and nuclear scientists, Iran hit Israel far harder. Consider the following facts:
Israel has one international airport… Ben Gurion.
Iran has 29 international airports.
By closing Ben Gurion, Iran cut off Israel’s access to commercial air traffic. Israel hit at least three airports in Iran, but did not stop commercial air traffic to Iran.
How about seaports? Israel only has two ports that handle container ships — Haifa and Ashdod. Iran forced the closure of Haifa and was on its way to doing the same to Ashdod. Iran, by contrast, has eight principal ports on the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman:
Port of Shahid Rajaee (Bandar Abbas complex)
Bandar Abbas (general shipping)
Chabahar (direct access to Indian Ocean)
Bandar Khomeini, Bandar Mahshahr, Bushehr, Parsian, Hormuz
None were forced to suspend operations.
If Iran had shuttered Ashdod, Israel would have faced the prospect of significant shortages of essential items, including food and energy. Israel would have been compelled to rely on military airports for resupply, but it appears those airfields were hit by Iranian missiles and suffered some damage. The extent of the destruction is unknown thanks to the efficiency of Israeli censors.
Iran also hurt Israel’s ability to refine oil at the Haifa Refinery — Operated by BAZAN Group (formerly Oil Refineries Ltd.), located in Haifa Bay, with a capacity of approximately 197,000 barrels per day (~9 million tons annually). Iran reportedly hit and severely damaged the Haifa Refinery. Israel has one other refinery at Ashdod — Owned by Paz Oil Company, based in Ashdod, with a capacity of about 108,000 barrels per day (~5.4 million tons annually). I have seen no reports about Iranian attacks on the facility at Ashdod.
Had this war continued, Israel likely would have faced an unprecedented economic crisis if it lost its two main container ports and its refineries. Because Israel’s air-defense system had been rendered inoperable and Iran continued to demonstrate the ability to hit critical infrastructure, Israel could have faced a genuine existential crisis.
IAEA Director Rafael Grossi is in a panic. During an interview with a French TV station, he admitted:
The IAEA has lost the ability to monitor Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile following the recent escalation between Israel and Iran.
I think Iranian officials now realize they were played for fools by the IAEA. Circumstantial evidence points to IAEA as the source that provided the names, addresses and phone numbers of the Iranian nuclear scientists that were murdered by Israeli operatives. Iran is taking steps to end its relationship with the IAEA, according to Eureka News:
The Iranian Parliament approved a bill on Wednesday to suspend cooperation with the IAEA.
Alireza Salimi, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s presidency, stated that the decision would be referred to the Supreme National Security Council for approval. He also said that agency inspectors would be banned from entering the country and that sanctions would be imposed on those who allowed them in.
“The International Atomic Energy Agency did not even formally condemn the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, so it has lost its international credibility,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Parliament.
He also stressed that the country intends to continue working on peaceful nuclear energy, despite the threats. “Iran will be more ready and prepared than ever, our hand is on the trigger, and we will respond with overwhelming force to any aggression,” he stated.
Grossi is throwing his own version of a temper tantrum, telling Eureka News:
Iran has an obligation to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency on its nuclear program,” its Director General, Rafael Grossi, told France 2 on Wednesday.
In detail, the senior official stated that Iran’s cooperation with the agency “is not a favor, it is a legal obligation as long as Iran remains a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In light of the events of the last 12 days, Iran would be entirely justified to withdraw from the NPT. I wonder if Russia and China are reconsidering their cooperation with IAEA. Russia’s Sergei Lavrov made the same observation as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (see above)… harshly criticizing the IAEA’s failure to denounce the Israeli and US attacks on Iran’s nuclear plants.
While Trump is confident that Iran will return to the negotiating table, I remain skeptical that Iran is willing to sit down with Steve Witkoff and agree to halt all uranium enrichment. Given the perfidy of the IAEA and the unlawful actions of Israel and the United States, Iranian officials would be fools to entertain such talks. That’s my opinion. We will see what Iranian officials say this week.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
