The sniper’s bullet that silenced Charlie Kirk on 10 September at Utah Valley University did more than end the life of America’s most prominent conservative youth activist. It ignited a firestorm of theories that illuminated the deepest fractures within the Republican Party since the Cold War. Within hours, social media exploded with speculation that Israel’s Mossad had orchestrated the assassination to neutralize what some saw as a rising threat to Israel’s influence in Washington.
While speculative, the speed and ferocity with which such conspiracy theories spread reveal something profound. Kirk’s assassination has become a symbol of the impossible balancing act facing Republican leaders as younger conservatives shun pro-Zionist sentiments, abandoning Israel in numbers that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
The unraveling Republican–Israel consensus
Kirk’s assassination was a flashpoint, but the deeper story is in the data. A University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll (29 July–7 August) exposed a dramatic generational schism: While 52 percent of Republicans aged 35 and over sympathize more with Israel, only 24 percent of Republicans aged 18–34 say the same.
The gulf widens when it comes to Gaza. Among older Republicans, 52 percent say Israeli actions in Gaza are justified. Among younger Republicans, only 22 percent agree. “The change taking place among young Republicans is breathtaking,” said Shibley Telhami, the poll’s principal investigator. “While 52 percent of older Republicans (35+) sympathize more with Israel, only 24 percent of younger Republicans (18–34) say the same – fewer than half.”
The shift accelerated dramatically after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October 2023. Pew Research Center data shows that unfavorable views of Israel among Republicans under 50 jumped from 35 percent in 2022 to 50 percent in 2025, a remarkable 15-point increase. In contrast, Republicans aged 50 and older moved only marginally, from 19 percent to 23 percent unfavorable.
The University of Maryland poll found that 41 percent of Americans believe Israeli military actions in Gaza constitute either “genocide” or are “akin to genocide,” including 14 percent of Republicans. Notably, the survey discovered that 21 percent of Republicans consider US President Donald Trump’s administration’s policy toward Israel–Palestine “too pro-Israel,” while 57 percent of Republicans said Washington’s support has enabled Israeli war crimes.
Even evangelical Republicans – long Israel’s most fervent base – are shifting. Among older evangelicals, 69 percent express more sympathy with Israel. But that number drops to 32 percent among their younger counterparts. Only 36 percent of younger evangelical Republicans believe Israeli actions in Gaza are justified.
In a sharp rebuke to the bipartisan tradition of unconditional aid, a September 2025 AtlasIntel poll found that just 30 percent of Americans support financial assistance to Israel, showing that Israel’s “blank check” in Washington is increasingly out of step with public opinion. A growing number of Republicans now argue that US policy prioritizes Israeli interests over American ones.
In a similar vein, the University of Maryland poll found that the rise of social media has significantly accelerated this attitudinal shift on Israel while fueling broader support for a more restrained foreign policy approach.
While 32 percent of Republicans aged 35 and older say Fox News is their primary news source, only 12 percent of younger Republicans rely primarily on the news channel. By contrast, nearly half (46 percent) of Republicans aged 18–34 get their primary news from the internet and social media, where resistance narratives and Palestinian voices are far more accessible, despite efforts to censor them. This is compared to 29 percent of older Republicans. This shift matters. Seventy-two percent of Republicans who rely on Fox News support Israel. Among those whose main source is social media, support drops to 35 percent. Conservative youth are consuming a radically different discourse, one that challenges the old dogmas.
Congressional outliers and rising dissent
The conservative grassroots revolt has found limited but vocal expression among Republican elected officials. Three figures stand out as exceptions to the party’s overwhelming pro-Israel consensus: Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Thomas Massie (R-KY), and former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.
Greene’s evolution has been the most dramatic. In November 2023, she proudly defended her “history of voting to fund Israel’s Iron Dome and other defense systems.” By July 2025, she was describing Israel’s Gaza war as “genocide.” On 28 July, she wrote on X, “It’s the most truthful and easiest thing to say that Oct 7th in Israel was horrific and all hostages must be returned, but so is the genocide, humanitarian crisis, and starvation happening in Gaza.” Greene’s most pointed critique came days later, when she questioned American priorities with respect to West Asia foreign policy:
Are innocent Israeli lives more valuable than innocent Palestinian and Christian lives? And why should America continue funding this?
The secular government of nuclear-armed Israel has proven that they are beyond capable of dealing with their enemies and are capable of and are in the process of systematically cleansing them from the land.
Her criticism intensified through August, when she told One America News Network that “Israel is not hurting, and they’ve already proven that they are more than capable of not only defending themselves, but annihilating their enemies to the point of genocide. And that’s what’s happening in Gaza.”
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