Yesterday the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo threatened to fire his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to oust Defense Minister Yoav Gallant from his position, a senior political official said on Monday. Netanyahu planned to add Gideon Saar’s New Hope party to the coalition adding four seats to his Knesset majority.
The move raised concern among the families of hostages currently held in Gaza because of Saar’s position opposing a deal with Hamas that would see hostages freed. Stocks fell and gas prices spiked amid expectations of the government reshuffle.
The rift between Netanyahu and Gallant has widened in recent months after the defense minister opposed the prime minister’s refusal to agree to a deal that would free hostages. The position of the Defense Ministry, the IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad is that Israel can deal with the security risks that would emerge from such a deal and that the release of hostages must be a priority.
Gallant, despite being as radical as Netanyahoo, is the only asset the U.S. government still has in the cabinet:
U.S. officials are concerned over the possible Gallant ousting, claiming he is the ‘only adult in the room’ in Netanyahu’s government after the relations between the prime minister and U.S. President Joe Biden have again soured …
Gallant is opposed to several of Netanyahoo’s policies:
- He wants a ceasefire deal in Gaza that would allow the hostages to be freed. Netanyahoo rejects a ceasefire.
- He wants to prevent a law that would exempt Haredi men from military service. The Ultraorthodox members of the cabinet press Netanyahoo to pass the exemption.
- He is skeptical about an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Other parts of the coalition are pressing for it.
After being threatened to be fired Gallant conceded on the last point:
In the shadow of the attempts to remove him and replace him with the chairman of the New Hope Party Gideon Sa’ar, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant changed his tone Monday and in a closed security discussion \ with Netanyahu he said: “I kept talking about escalation or negotiating an agreement [with Hizbullah], but there is no possibility of reaching an agreement. There is only one option: to go full force and use all our military power in order to bring the residents of the north home.”
Since October 8, a day after the Hamas operation to snatch more hostages, Hezbollah has been firing missiles towards Israeli settlements along the Lebanese border. Following that the Israeli government evacuated at least 60,000 people from the border zone.
It was the first time that Israel conceded something like a buffer zone within its borders.
After 11 months the 60,000+ people have become a burden for the economy. Away from their homes and places of work the people are unproductive. On top of that the state has to cover the costs of their food and lodging.
After last nights meetings the Israeli government declared that the return of the settlers to north would now be a major war aim. This makes an imminent war with Hizbullah much more likely:
Right now is the closest Israel has been to a full war with Hezbollah since October 7.
…
The Jerusalem Post has received indications behind the scenes, at both the political and military levels, from sources who, although beforehand were pouring cold water on the public statements, are now signaling that these statements are serious.Their reasons highlight how realities have changed a lot over the course of the war.
Throughout, the main reason not to enter into war with Hezbollah was to avoid distractions that might handicap the IDF from its goal of taking apart all 24 of Hamas’s battalions in Gaza.
Gallant declared Hamas’s last battalion in Rafah defeated on August 21, nearly a month ago.
In reality neither has Hamas been defeated nor has the killing of Gazans by Israeli forces stopped. The genocide continues as to daily losses on the Israeli side of the war.
But Hizbullah is a more and more pressing issues. Soon bad winter weather will set in which will disallow the full use of drones and air force assets on which Israeli forces depend.
It is either now or after waiting another four months.
Netanyahoo and his cabinet seems to be under the illusion that a war with Hizbullah is winnable. Despite all Israeli trickery with booby trapped pagers it is not. Hizbullahs well protected missile arsenal is likely to overcome all Israeli defenses. Israel is likely to end up on the losing side of any such conflagration.
A war could easily be avoided. Hizbullah has promised to end the current strife as soon as a durable ceasefire is signed between Israel and Gaza.
Netanyahoo’s rejection of any permanent ceasefire in Gaza makes an Israel attack on Lebanon, and the following losses, an inevitable consequence.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
