It should be evident by now that the Donald’s one and only north star is his own glorification and self-aggrandizement. That’s why he’s totally flat-footed at this crucial moment in the pandemic saga.

What he needs to be doing is taking off the gloves for a bare-knuckled counter-attack against the Virus Patrol, which is ruining America’s economic and fiscal future.

Instead, yesterday he put on the Mask and the tweeted a juvenile boast that he’s the most patriotic muzzle-wearer in the land. Apparently, there is no place the Donald won’t go to reverse his sagging poll results:

We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance. There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!

But no, Donald, you ain’t no favorite among lovers of liberty, capitalist prosperity, free market opportunity and the constitutional fettering of state power.

After all, you said you came to Washington to drain the Swamp, yet there is no more odious set of Swamp Creatures than the camarilla of NIH/CDC/FDA doctors and apparatchiks, along with their Big Pharma and Gates Vaccine lobby allies, who bamboozled you into the folly of Lockdown Nation last March.

But now—when its way past time to reverse course and repudiate your malpracticing doctors— you actually genuflect to their Mask Totem, when you should be declaring loudly and unequivocally the opposite: Namely, that the the coronavirus has meet it match in the immune systems of the overwhelming share of Americans, and that it’s beating a fast retreat into the archives of still another infectious winter virus that passed through the population and moved on.

On the one hand, the Grim Reaper of Covid has long since vacated the epicenter of its brief rampage in New York, where the foolish actions of Gauleiter Cuomo caused a surge in nursing home infections, sickness and death, which accounts almost entirely for the four week surge in the state’s WITH-Covid death count during April.

By contrast, during the current month thru July 20, New York has tested like crazy, but has come up with no cigar with respect to new Covid cases. Compared to a total of 1,250,000 tests during that 20-day period, only 13,872 have tested positive, and many of those are surely the same people taking and re-taking their PCP swab in order to gain license to go back to work.

In any event, the gross positive rate is just 1.1 percent and would probably well less than that if the data were de-duped.

Likewise, there have been an average of just 10 WITH-Covid deaths reported during the first three weeks of July, which self-evidently is a tiny fraction of 500-800 deaths per day—heavily in the nursing homes—reported during April. Moreover, there is no real mystery as to why the curve is (thankfully) plunging to the lower right of the chart and heading right off the page. This virus like other virulent influenza’s strikes the weakest and most vulnerable population first, and thereafter tends to meet its match as the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population join the battle.

What that natural progression of the contagion means, of course, is that Governor Cuomo’s economically destructive lockdown orders had virtually nothing to do with the coronavirus’ welcome retreat.

That’s evident by comparison with Sweden, which had virtually no lockdowns at all. As of yesterday, however, the WITH-Covid death rate was 130 per 100,000 persons for New York state overall, and 235, 223 and 200 per 100,000, respectively, in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn.

By contrast, the mortality rate in Sweden has been about 55 per 100,000, and the preponderant share of those have been people over 70 years, heavily institutionalized in care facilities. In any event, the chart below says it all. Governor Cuomo’s boot heels did not “flatten the curve” relative to the open social and economic regime in Sweden, and also resulted in a 2.5X higher mortality rate on a cumulative basis.

By the same token, there is no “second wave” crisis in the so-called hot spot areas of the Sunbelt, either. Like in the case of New York, the virus is simply moving through the population in a time frame that is a month or two lagged relative to the original contagion’s spread in the Northeast; and, again, it is meeting its match in the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population.

The proof for that is straight-forward and is measured by the hospitalization rate per new case. The latter has plunged from 15-20 percent in the early days of the contagion in these new so-called hot spot states, but is now in the low single digits. The data for new cases, hospitalizations and the hospitalization ratio for the first 20 days of July includes the following:

· Florida: 207,960 new cases, 6,726 additional hospitalizations=3.2 percent;

· Arizona: 65,968 new cases, 1,962 additional hospitalizations=3.0 percent;

· Tennessee: 36,245 new cases, 1,047 additional hospitalizations=2.9 percent;

· Georgia: 64,284 new cases, 3,996 additional hospitalizations=6.2 percent;

· Arkansas: 13,150 new cases, 883 additional hospitalizations=6.0 percent;

· South Carolina: 35,046 new cases, 1,328 additional hospitalizations=3.8 percent;

· Mississippi: 21,642 new cases, 610 additional hospitalizations=2.8 percent

In a word, hospitalization rates of 3-6 percent are not indicative of a public health crisis or a dread disease laying waste to the population. In fact, they are only slightly above the hospitalization rates for normal winter influenza.

The chart below is the CDC’s assessment for the 2010-2018 seasons, and shows that the hospitalization rate per infected case has averaged 1.5 percent-2.0 percent over that eight year period; and that’s against a generous guesstimate of total influenza illnesses, not lab confirmed cases as with the current Covid stats.

Still, the point hardly needs saying. We do not close the bars, restaurants, gyms, hair salons, movies, malls etc. every winter owing to the flu. Yet that’s exactly what the Donald’ camarilla of malpracticing doctors are now urging for the states listed above in the face of a virus that is only slightly more severe than normal.

Stated differently, even now 94-97 percent of the ballyhooed “new cases” in the so-called Red Zone states are either asymptomatic or result in mild illness and recovery at home. The fact that what the Donald mistakenly thought was the Greatest Economy Ever is now swamped in unemployment, business failures, payment delinquencies and a fearful, muzzle-ridden public is ultimately the doing of the Masked Man above.

Harry Truman was right. The buck stops in the Oval Office.

At the end of the day, it was the Donald who empowered Dr. Fauci, who, in turn, paved the way for the governors, public health departments, mayors and lesser officials to attack the livelihoods and well-being of their own constituents in their tens of millions.

To add insult to injury, however, you can leave it to Dr. Fauci. The man had the gall to offer New York state as a shinning example to the rest of the nation when, in fact, it’s governor is damn near criminally negligent on the state’s nursing home death tsunami alone.

The fact is, New York’s mortality rate per 100,000 is well more than 2X greater than the European basket cases of Italy, Spain and the UK, and is actually more than 4.5X higher than Florida’s and 9.5X higher than that of Texas.

In the face of such abysmal judgement, the Donald’s trademark “you’re fired” would be the least that might be expected. But what we got was not just the ostentatious tweet of POTUS in a muzzle, but a renewed signal for the power-grabbing, Trump-hating local Dem officialdom to intensify their attacks on the main street economy.

The Dem rulers of Broward County, Florida, for example, have just now issued an order requiring homeowners to enforce the mask rule against visitors in their own homes-–upon penalty of fine or jail and subject to county inspector surveillance.

Likewise, County mayor Dale Holness’ announced a curfew and criminal penalties for having more than 10 people in your own home, or being part of a gathering of more than 10 people inside a PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

Of course, Broward County is just a microcosm of the economy-crushing mayhem that has been unleashed by the Donald’s own presumptive subordinates. This is no longer just a few aggressive governors like those of New York, New Jersey and Michigan in the early days of the pandemic: What you have now is a veritable army of petty officialdom, enforcers and self-appointed snitches literally tearing apart the fabric of economic and social life in much of America.

Of course, the Donald is clueless about this because the retainers and sycophants who surround him insure he doesn’t grasp the enormity of the economic collapse that has been triggered, and which shows no sign of some kind of miraculous “V”-shaped rebound.

Nor does he realize that the pre-Covid economy was a fragile tinder-box of debt, speculation and malinvestment that was stumbling forward on cyclical fumes and the residual growth momentum of capitalism—even in the face of the giant obstacles to sustainable prosperity stood up by the state and especially its central banking branch.

So any old Black Swan could have triggered the deep recession now underway. But owing to the sudden, concentrated blunderbuss attacks of Lockdown Nation, this one will prove to be the blackist avian visitor of all.

For instance, nothing like this chart has ever been seen before in the annals of modern history. Compared to a peak of 6.6 million UI beneficiaries at the bottom of the Great Recession (May 2009), there are now upwards of 32 million workers drawing state and Federal UI benefits. That’s more than 20 percent of the 158 million employed workers as of February.

Ordinarily, the jolt to income and spending from a 32 million person army of the unemployed would have sent the US economy reeling months ago because in the hand-to-mouth world that the Donald inherited, 80 percent of the households have no meaningful financial cushion or rainy day funds.

Of course, that unemployment based income and spending plunge is now being temporarily cushioned by the unprecedented eruption of free stuff from Uncle Sam that was packed into the Everything Bailouts three months ago. That includes upwards of $500 billion of wage support via the PPP program at the SBA, the $1,200 helicopter checks which went out to 160 million citizens and especially the $600 per week Federal “top-up” on UI benefits.

The impact of the latter in disguising the economic pain implicit in the UI chart above cannot be over-emphasized. On a nationwide average basis, the regular state UI program pays about $500 per week or an annualized rate of $26,000 to covered workers.

In the middle of the night during the frenzied legislative sessions of late March, however, Congress upped the ante to $1,100 per week, which annualizes to $57,200.

Them there is different kettles of fish entirely!

But the Federal top-up also costs $75 billion per month and has put nearly two-thirds of unemployed recipients in a higher income bracket than when they were on the job drawing a paycheck; and, also, by the way, producing output of goods and services which are the real building blocks of the macro-economy.

It now comes to pass that at least some of the sleep-walking GOP senators have figured out that you can’t shell out a $75 billion per month dole for unemployment and expect the engines of economic life to restart or the tattered remains of Washington’s fiscal accounts to ever be repaired.

So there is a rather considerable chance that the battle over the impending Everything Bailout 4.0 will be prolonged, and that the giant air-cushion of transfer payments which has disguised the Lockdown Nation disaster will be abruptly deflated in August.

The chart below, in fact, shows how the phantasmagoria of free stuff from Washington since March has tuned upside down the traditional notion of a recession, and especially one where one-fifth of the labor force is unemployed. The chart shows total monthly household personal income—including dividends, interest and proprietors profits which mostly goes to the top 10 percent—-since January.

Incredibly, during April when the bottom literally dropped out of industries ranging from air travel to neighborhood restaurants and bars, total household income was actually 5 percent higher than it was during January—a time when both Wall Street and the Donald claimed the US economy was booming like never before.

Since then, household income has managed to stay right at the pre-Covid January level, notwithstanding a loss of wage and salary disbursements that is still running at a negative $850 billion annual rate.

What portends for August and many months to come, therefore, is the delayed income and spending contraction of a battered economy which has already experienced a double-digit plunge in the actual production of goods and services.

Needless to say, that’s going to shock both Wall Street and the Masked Man alike.

And it will be enough of a blow to voter confidence—even in the Trumpite precincts of Flyover America—so as to insure that the best outcome possible on November 3 will be the Mother-of-All-Hanging Chad battles at the Electoral College and Supreme Court, while the likely outcome is a return of the vengeful coalition of Clintonista poltroons and Progressive-Left ideologues to the seats of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

In either contingency, today’s lagging indicators of the underlying economic distress generated by Lockdown nation will be aggravated enormously. These charts on failing rent collections and small business closures are, in fact, just the tip of the iceberg—and will continue to worsen even if some gussied-up Everything Bailout 4.0 is cobbled together on Capitol Hill before the real election season blood-lettings get underway.

Indeed, on any number of high-frequency variables, the data has already plateaued and that’s before the August plunge and the most vicious election battle in modern history have taken their toll.

And now with the new lockdown orders and a renewed MSM campaign of Covid-Hysteria in the Sunbelt, there is indeed a “second wave” coming—that is, more hemorrhaging of jobs, incomes, defaults and business failures across the length and breath of main street America.

As we said, anyone who actually believed the Donald had any semblance of a plan for MAGA should now be asking “Who’s that Masked Man”?

We’re not.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

It should be evident by now that the Donald’s one and only north star is his own glorification and self-aggrandizement. That’s why he’s totally flat-footed at this crucial moment in the pandemic saga.

What he needs to be doing is taking off the gloves for a bare-knuckled counter-attack against the Virus Patrol, which is ruining America’s economic and fiscal future.

Instead, yesterday he put on the Mask and the tweeted a juvenile boast that he’s the most patriotic muzzle-wearer in the land. Apparently, there is no place the Donald won’t go to reverse his sagging poll results:

We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance. There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!

But no, Donald, you ain’t no favorite among lovers of liberty, capitalist prosperity, free market opportunity and the constitutional fettering of state power.

After all, you said you came to Washington to drain the Swamp, yet there is no more odious set of Swamp Creatures than the camarilla of NIH/CDC/FDA doctors and apparatchiks, along with their Big Pharma and Gates Vaccine lobby allies, who bamboozled you into the folly of Lockdown Nation last March.

But now—when its way past time to reverse course and repudiate your malpracticing doctors— you actually genuflect to their Mask Totem, when you should be declaring loudly and unequivocally the opposite: Namely, that the the coronavirus has meet it match in the immune systems of the overwhelming share of Americans, and that it’s beating a fast retreat into the archives of still another infectious winter virus that passed through the population and moved on.

On the one hand, the Grim Reaper of Covid has long since vacated the epicenter of its brief rampage in New York, where the foolish actions of Gauleiter Cuomo caused a surge in nursing home infections, sickness and death, which accounts almost entirely for the four week surge in the state’s WITH-Covid death count during April.

By contrast, during the current month thru July 20, New York has tested like crazy, but has come up with no cigar with respect to new Covid cases. Compared to a total of 1,250,000 tests during that 20-day period, only 13,872 have tested positive, and many of those are surely the same people taking and re-taking their PCP swab in order to gain license to go back to work.

In any event, the gross positive rate is just 1.1 percent and would probably well less than that if the data were de-duped.

Likewise, there have been an average of just 10 WITH-Covid deaths reported during the first three weeks of July, which self-evidently is a tiny fraction of 500-800 deaths per day—heavily in the nursing homes—reported during April. Moreover, there is no real mystery as to why the curve is (thankfully) plunging to the lower right of the chart and heading right off the page. This virus like other virulent influenza’s strikes the weakest and most vulnerable population first, and thereafter tends to meet its match as the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population join the battle.

What that natural progression of the contagion means, of course, is that Governor Cuomo’s economically destructive lockdown orders had virtually nothing to do with the coronavirus’ welcome retreat.

That’s evident by comparison with Sweden, which had virtually no lockdowns at all. As of yesterday, however, the WITH-Covid death rate was 130 per 100,000 persons for New York state overall, and 235, 223 and 200 per 100,000, respectively, in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn.

By contrast, the mortality rate in Sweden has been about 55 per 100,000, and the preponderant share of those have been people over 70 years, heavily institutionalized in care facilities. In any event, the chart below says it all. Governor Cuomo’s boot heels did not “flatten the curve” relative to the open social and economic regime in Sweden, and also resulted in a 2.5X higher mortality rate on a cumulative basis.

By the same token, there is no “second wave” crisis in the so-called hot spot areas of the Sunbelt, either. Like in the case of New York, the virus is simply moving through the population in a time frame that is a month or two lagged relative to the original contagion’s spread in the Northeast; and, again, it is meeting its match in the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population.

The proof for that is straight-forward and is measured by the hospitalization rate per new case. The latter has plunged from 15-20 percent in the early days of the contagion in these new so-called hot spot states, but is now in the low single digits. The data for new cases, hospitalizations and the hospitalization ratio for the first 20 days of July includes the following:

· Florida: 207,960 new cases, 6,726 additional hospitalizations=3.2 percent;

· Arizona: 65,968 new cases, 1,962 additional hospitalizations=3.0 percent;

· Tennessee: 36,245 new cases, 1,047 additional hospitalizations=2.9 percent;

· Georgia: 64,284 new cases, 3,996 additional hospitalizations=6.2 percent;

· Arkansas: 13,150 new cases, 883 additional hospitalizations=6.0 percent;

· South Carolina: 35,046 new cases, 1,328 additional hospitalizations=3.8 percent;

· Mississippi: 21,642 new cases, 610 additional hospitalizations=2.8 percent

In a word, hospitalization rates of 3-6 percent are not indicative of a public health crisis or a dread disease laying waste to the population. In fact, they are only slightly above the hospitalization rates for normal winter influenza.

The chart below is the CDC’s assessment for the 2010-2018 seasons, and shows that the hospitalization rate per infected case has averaged 1.5 percent-2.0 percent over that eight year period; and that’s against a generous guesstimate of total influenza illnesses, not lab confirmed cases as with the current Covid stats.

Still, the point hardly needs saying. We do not close the bars, restaurants, gyms, hair salons, movies, malls etc. every winter owing to the flu. Yet that’s exactly what the Donald’ camarilla of malpracticing doctors are now urging for the states listed above in the face of a virus that is only slightly more severe than normal.

Stated differently, even now 94-97 percent of the ballyhooed “new cases” in the so-called Red Zone states are either asymptomatic or result in mild illness and recovery at home. The fact that what the Donald mistakenly thought was the Greatest Economy Ever is now swamped in unemployment, business failures, payment delinquencies and a fearful, muzzle-ridden public is ultimately the doing of the Masked Man above.

Harry Truman was right. The buck stops in the Oval Office.

At the end of the day, it was the Donald who empowered Dr. Fauci, who, in turn, paved the way for the governors, public health departments, mayors and lesser officials to attack the livelihoods and well-being of their own constituents in their tens of millions.

To add insult to injury, however, you can leave it to Dr. Fauci. The man had the gall to offer New York state as a shinning example to the rest of the nation when, in fact, it’s governor is damn near criminally negligent on the state’s nursing home death tsunami alone.

The fact is, New York’s mortality rate per 100,000 is well more than 2X greater than the European basket cases of Italy, Spain and the UK, and is actually more than 4.5X higher than Florida’s and 9.5X higher than that of Texas.

In the face of such abysmal judgement, the Donald’s trademark “you’re fired” would be the least that might be expected. But what we got was not just the ostentatious tweet of POTUS in a muzzle, but a renewed signal for the power-grabbing, Trump-hating local Dem officialdom to intensify their attacks on the main street economy.

The Dem rulers of Broward County, Florida, for example, have just now issued an order requiring homeowners to enforce the mask rule against visitors in their own homes-–upon penalty of fine or jail and subject to county inspector surveillance.

Likewise, County mayor Dale Holness’ announced a curfew and criminal penalties for having more than 10 people in your own home, or being part of a gathering of more than 10 people inside a PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

Of course, Broward County is just a microcosm of the economy-crushing mayhem that has been unleashed by the Donald’s own presumptive subordinates. This is no longer just a few aggressive governors like those of New York, New Jersey and Michigan in the early days of the pandemic: What you have now is a veritable army of petty officialdom, enforcers and self-appointed snitches literally tearing apart the fabric of economic and social life in much of America.

Of course, the Donald is clueless about this because the retainers and sycophants who surround him insure he doesn’t grasp the enormity of the economic collapse that has been triggered, and which shows no sign of some kind of miraculous “V”-shaped rebound.

Nor does he realize that the pre-Covid economy was a fragile tinder-box of debt, speculation and malinvestment that was stumbling forward on cyclical fumes and the residual growth momentum of capitalism—even in the face of the giant obstacles to sustainable prosperity stood up by the state and especially its central banking branch.

So any old Black Swan could have triggered the deep recession now underway. But owing to the sudden, concentrated blunderbuss attacks of Lockdown Nation, this one will prove to be the blackist avian visitor of all.

For instance, nothing like this chart has ever been seen before in the annals of modern history. Compared to a peak of 6.6 million UI beneficiaries at the bottom of the Great Recession (May 2009), there are now upwards of 32 million workers drawing state and Federal UI benefits. That’s more than 20 percent of the 158 million employed workers as of February.

Ordinarily, the jolt to income and spending from a 32 million person army of the unemployed would have sent the US economy reeling months ago because in the hand-to-mouth world that the Donald inherited, 80 percent of the households have no meaningful financial cushion or rainy day funds.

Of course, that unemployment based income and spending plunge is now being temporarily cushioned by the unprecedented eruption of free stuff from Uncle Sam that was packed into the Everything Bailouts three months ago. That includes upwards of $500 billion of wage support via the PPP program at the SBA, the $1,200 helicopter checks which went out to 160 million citizens and especially the $600 per week Federal “top-up” on UI benefits.

The impact of the latter in disguising the economic pain implicit in the UI chart above cannot be over-emphasized. On a nationwide average basis, the regular state UI program pays about $500 per week or an annualized rate of $26,000 to covered workers.

In the middle of the night during the frenzied legislative sessions of late March, however, Congress upped the ante to $1,100 per week, which annualizes to $57,200.

Them there is different kettles of fish entirely!

But the Federal top-up also costs $75 billion per month and has put nearly two-thirds of unemployed recipients in a higher income bracket than when they were on the job drawing a paycheck; and, also, by the way, producing output of goods and services which are the real building blocks of the macro-economy.

It now comes to pass that at least some of the sleep-walking GOP senators have figured out that you can’t shell out a $75 billion per month dole for unemployment and expect the engines of economic life to restart or the tattered remains of Washington’s fiscal accounts to ever be repaired.

So there is a rather considerable chance that the battle over the impending Everything Bailout 4.0 will be prolonged, and that the giant air-cushion of transfer payments which has disguised the Lockdown Nation disaster will be abruptly deflated in August.

The chart below, in fact, shows how the phantasmagoria of free stuff from Washington since March has tuned upside down the traditional notion of a recession, and especially one where one-fifth of the labor force is unemployed. The chart shows total monthly household personal income—including dividends, interest and proprietors profits which mostly goes to the top 10 percent—-since January.

Incredibly, during April when the bottom literally dropped out of industries ranging from air travel to neighborhood restaurants and bars, total household income was actually 5 percent higher than it was during January—a time when both Wall Street and the Donald claimed the US economy was booming like never before.

Since then, household income has managed to stay right at the pre-Covid January level, notwithstanding a loss of wage and salary disbursements that is still running at a negative $850 billion annual rate.

What portends for August and many months to come, therefore, is the delayed income and spending contraction of a battered economy which has already experienced a double-digit plunge in the actual production of goods and services.

Needless to say, that’s going to shock both Wall Street and the Masked Man alike.

And it will be enough of a blow to voter confidence—even in the Trumpite precincts of Flyover America—so as to insure that the best outcome possible on November 3 will be the Mother-of-All-Hanging Chad battles at the Electoral College and Supreme Court, while the likely outcome is a return of the vengeful coalition of Clintonista poltroons and Progressive-Left ideologues to the seats of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

In either contingency, today’s lagging indicators of the underlying economic distress generated by Lockdown nation will be aggravated enormously. These charts on failing rent collections and small business closures are, in fact, just the tip of the iceberg—and will continue to worsen even if some gussied-up Everything Bailout 4.0 is cobbled together on Capitol Hill before the real election season blood-lettings get underway.

Indeed, on any number of high-frequency variables, the data has already plateaued and that’s before the August plunge and the most vicious election battle in modern history have taken their toll.

And now with the new lockdown orders and a renewed MSM campaign of Covid-Hysteria in the Sunbelt, there is indeed a “second wave” coming—that is, more hemorrhaging of jobs, incomes, defaults and business failures across the length and breath of main street America.

As we said, anyone who actually believed the Donald had any semblance of a plan for MAGA should now be asking “Who’s that Masked Man”?

We’re not.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

It should be evident by now that the Donald’s one and only north star is his own glorification and self-aggrandizement. That’s why he’s totally flat-footed at this crucial moment in the pandemic saga.

What he needs to be doing is taking off the gloves for a bare-knuckled counter-attack against the Virus Patrol, which is ruining America’s economic and fiscal future.

Instead, yesterday he put on the Mask and the tweeted a juvenile boast that he’s the most patriotic muzzle-wearer in the land. Apparently, there is no place the Donald won’t go to reverse his sagging poll results:

We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance. There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!

But no, Donald, you ain’t no favorite among lovers of liberty, capitalist prosperity, free market opportunity and the constitutional fettering of state power.

After all, you said you came to Washington to drain the Swamp, yet there is no more odious set of Swamp Creatures than the camarilla of NIH/CDC/FDA doctors and apparatchiks, along with their Big Pharma and Gates Vaccine lobby allies, who bamboozled you into the folly of Lockdown Nation last March.

But now—when its way past time to reverse course and repudiate your malpracticing doctors— you actually genuflect to their Mask Totem, when you should be declaring loudly and unequivocally the opposite: Namely, that the the coronavirus has meet it match in the immune systems of the overwhelming share of Americans, and that it’s beating a fast retreat into the archives of still another infectious winter virus that passed through the population and moved on.

On the one hand, the Grim Reaper of Covid has long since vacated the epicenter of its brief rampage in New York, where the foolish actions of Gauleiter Cuomo caused a surge in nursing home infections, sickness and death, which accounts almost entirely for the four week surge in the state’s WITH-Covid death count during April.

By contrast, during the current month thru July 20, New York has tested like crazy, but has come up with no cigar with respect to new Covid cases. Compared to a total of 1,250,000 tests during that 20-day period, only 13,872 have tested positive, and many of those are surely the same people taking and re-taking their PCP swab in order to gain license to go back to work.

In any event, the gross positive rate is just 1.1 percent and would probably well less than that if the data were de-duped.

Likewise, there have been an average of just 10 WITH-Covid deaths reported during the first three weeks of July, which self-evidently is a tiny fraction of 500-800 deaths per day—heavily in the nursing homes—reported during April. Moreover, there is no real mystery as to why the curve is (thankfully) plunging to the lower right of the chart and heading right off the page. This virus like other virulent influenza’s strikes the weakest and most vulnerable population first, and thereafter tends to meet its match as the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population join the battle.

What that natural progression of the contagion means, of course, is that Governor Cuomo’s economically destructive lockdown orders had virtually nothing to do with the coronavirus’ welcome retreat.

That’s evident by comparison with Sweden, which had virtually no lockdowns at all. As of yesterday, however, the WITH-Covid death rate was 130 per 100,000 persons for New York state overall, and 235, 223 and 200 per 100,000, respectively, in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn.

By contrast, the mortality rate in Sweden has been about 55 per 100,000, and the preponderant share of those have been people over 70 years, heavily institutionalized in care facilities. In any event, the chart below says it all. Governor Cuomo’s boot heels did not “flatten the curve” relative to the open social and economic regime in Sweden, and also resulted in a 2.5X higher mortality rate on a cumulative basis.

By the same token, there is no “second wave” crisis in the so-called hot spot areas of the Sunbelt, either. Like in the case of New York, the virus is simply moving through the population in a time frame that is a month or two lagged relative to the original contagion’s spread in the Northeast; and, again, it is meeting its match in the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population.

The proof for that is straight-forward and is measured by the hospitalization rate per new case. The latter has plunged from 15-20 percent in the early days of the contagion in these new so-called hot spot states, but is now in the low single digits. The data for new cases, hospitalizations and the hospitalization ratio for the first 20 days of July includes the following:

· Florida: 207,960 new cases, 6,726 additional hospitalizations=3.2 percent;

· Arizona: 65,968 new cases, 1,962 additional hospitalizations=3.0 percent;

· Tennessee: 36,245 new cases, 1,047 additional hospitalizations=2.9 percent;

· Georgia: 64,284 new cases, 3,996 additional hospitalizations=6.2 percent;

· Arkansas: 13,150 new cases, 883 additional hospitalizations=6.0 percent;

· South Carolina: 35,046 new cases, 1,328 additional hospitalizations=3.8 percent;

· Mississippi: 21,642 new cases, 610 additional hospitalizations=2.8 percent

In a word, hospitalization rates of 3-6 percent are not indicative of a public health crisis or a dread disease laying waste to the population. In fact, they are only slightly above the hospitalization rates for normal winter influenza.

The chart below is the CDC’s assessment for the 2010-2018 seasons, and shows that the hospitalization rate per infected case has averaged 1.5 percent-2.0 percent over that eight year period; and that’s against a generous guesstimate of total influenza illnesses, not lab confirmed cases as with the current Covid stats.

Still, the point hardly needs saying. We do not close the bars, restaurants, gyms, hair salons, movies, malls etc. every winter owing to the flu. Yet that’s exactly what the Donald’ camarilla of malpracticing doctors are now urging for the states listed above in the face of a virus that is only slightly more severe than normal.

Stated differently, even now 94-97 percent of the ballyhooed “new cases” in the so-called Red Zone states are either asymptomatic or result in mild illness and recovery at home. The fact that what the Donald mistakenly thought was the Greatest Economy Ever is now swamped in unemployment, business failures, payment delinquencies and a fearful, muzzle-ridden public is ultimately the doing of the Masked Man above.

Harry Truman was right. The buck stops in the Oval Office.

At the end of the day, it was the Donald who empowered Dr. Fauci, who, in turn, paved the way for the governors, public health departments, mayors and lesser officials to attack the livelihoods and well-being of their own constituents in their tens of millions.

To add insult to injury, however, you can leave it to Dr. Fauci. The man had the gall to offer New York state as a shinning example to the rest of the nation when, in fact, it’s governor is damn near criminally negligent on the state’s nursing home death tsunami alone.

The fact is, New York’s mortality rate per 100,000 is well more than 2X greater than the European basket cases of Italy, Spain and the UK, and is actually more than 4.5X higher than Florida’s and 9.5X higher than that of Texas.

In the face of such abysmal judgement, the Donald’s trademark “you’re fired” would be the least that might be expected. But what we got was not just the ostentatious tweet of POTUS in a muzzle, but a renewed signal for the power-grabbing, Trump-hating local Dem officialdom to intensify their attacks on the main street economy.

The Dem rulers of Broward County, Florida, for example, have just now issued an order requiring homeowners to enforce the mask rule against visitors in their own homes-–upon penalty of fine or jail and subject to county inspector surveillance.

Likewise, County mayor Dale Holness’ announced a curfew and criminal penalties for having more than 10 people in your own home, or being part of a gathering of more than 10 people inside a PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

Of course, Broward County is just a microcosm of the economy-crushing mayhem that has been unleashed by the Donald’s own presumptive subordinates. This is no longer just a few aggressive governors like those of New York, New Jersey and Michigan in the early days of the pandemic: What you have now is a veritable army of petty officialdom, enforcers and self-appointed snitches literally tearing apart the fabric of economic and social life in much of America.

Of course, the Donald is clueless about this because the retainers and sycophants who surround him insure he doesn’t grasp the enormity of the economic collapse that has been triggered, and which shows no sign of some kind of miraculous “V”-shaped rebound.

Nor does he realize that the pre-Covid economy was a fragile tinder-box of debt, speculation and malinvestment that was stumbling forward on cyclical fumes and the residual growth momentum of capitalism—even in the face of the giant obstacles to sustainable prosperity stood up by the state and especially its central banking branch.

So any old Black Swan could have triggered the deep recession now underway. But owing to the sudden, concentrated blunderbuss attacks of Lockdown Nation, this one will prove to be the blackist avian visitor of all.

For instance, nothing like this chart has ever been seen before in the annals of modern history. Compared to a peak of 6.6 million UI beneficiaries at the bottom of the Great Recession (May 2009), there are now upwards of 32 million workers drawing state and Federal UI benefits. That’s more than 20 percent of the 158 million employed workers as of February.

Ordinarily, the jolt to income and spending from a 32 million person army of the unemployed would have sent the US economy reeling months ago because in the hand-to-mouth world that the Donald inherited, 80 percent of the households have no meaningful financial cushion or rainy day funds.

Of course, that unemployment based income and spending plunge is now being temporarily cushioned by the unprecedented eruption of free stuff from Uncle Sam that was packed into the Everything Bailouts three months ago. That includes upwards of $500 billion of wage support via the PPP program at the SBA, the $1,200 helicopter checks which went out to 160 million citizens and especially the $600 per week Federal “top-up” on UI benefits.

The impact of the latter in disguising the economic pain implicit in the UI chart above cannot be over-emphasized. On a nationwide average basis, the regular state UI program pays about $500 per week or an annualized rate of $26,000 to covered workers.

In the middle of the night during the frenzied legislative sessions of late March, however, Congress upped the ante to $1,100 per week, which annualizes to $57,200.

Them there is different kettles of fish entirely!

But the Federal top-up also costs $75 billion per month and has put nearly two-thirds of unemployed recipients in a higher income bracket than when they were on the job drawing a paycheck; and, also, by the way, producing output of goods and services which are the real building blocks of the macro-economy.

It now comes to pass that at least some of the sleep-walking GOP senators have figured out that you can’t shell out a $75 billion per month dole for unemployment and expect the engines of economic life to restart or the tattered remains of Washington’s fiscal accounts to ever be repaired.

So there is a rather considerable chance that the battle over the impending Everything Bailout 4.0 will be prolonged, and that the giant air-cushion of transfer payments which has disguised the Lockdown Nation disaster will be abruptly deflated in August.

The chart below, in fact, shows how the phantasmagoria of free stuff from Washington since March has tuned upside down the traditional notion of a recession, and especially one where one-fifth of the labor force is unemployed. The chart shows total monthly household personal income—including dividends, interest and proprietors profits which mostly goes to the top 10 percent—-since January.

Incredibly, during April when the bottom literally dropped out of industries ranging from air travel to neighborhood restaurants and bars, total household income was actually 5 percent higher than it was during January—a time when both Wall Street and the Donald claimed the US economy was booming like never before.

Since then, household income has managed to stay right at the pre-Covid January level, notwithstanding a loss of wage and salary disbursements that is still running at a negative $850 billion annual rate.

What portends for August and many months to come, therefore, is the delayed income and spending contraction of a battered economy which has already experienced a double-digit plunge in the actual production of goods and services.

Needless to say, that’s going to shock both Wall Street and the Masked Man alike.

And it will be enough of a blow to voter confidence—even in the Trumpite precincts of Flyover America—so as to insure that the best outcome possible on November 3 will be the Mother-of-All-Hanging Chad battles at the Electoral College and Supreme Court, while the likely outcome is a return of the vengeful coalition of Clintonista poltroons and Progressive-Left ideologues to the seats of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

In either contingency, today’s lagging indicators of the underlying economic distress generated by Lockdown nation will be aggravated enormously. These charts on failing rent collections and small business closures are, in fact, just the tip of the iceberg—and will continue to worsen even if some gussied-up Everything Bailout 4.0 is cobbled together on Capitol Hill before the real election season blood-lettings get underway.

Indeed, on any number of high-frequency variables, the data has already plateaued and that’s before the August plunge and the most vicious election battle in modern history have taken their toll.

And now with the new lockdown orders and a renewed MSM campaign of Covid-Hysteria in the Sunbelt, there is indeed a “second wave” coming—that is, more hemorrhaging of jobs, incomes, defaults and business failures across the length and breath of main street America.

As we said, anyone who actually believed the Donald had any semblance of a plan for MAGA should now be asking “Who’s that Masked Man”?

We’re not.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

It should be evident by now that the Donald’s one and only north star is his own glorification and self-aggrandizement. That’s why he’s totally flat-footed at this crucial moment in the pandemic saga.

What he needs to be doing is taking off the gloves for a bare-knuckled counter-attack against the Virus Patrol, which is ruining America’s economic and fiscal future.

Instead, yesterday he put on the Mask and the tweeted a juvenile boast that he’s the most patriotic muzzle-wearer in the land. Apparently, there is no place the Donald won’t go to reverse his sagging poll results:

We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance. There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!

But no, Donald, you ain’t no favorite among lovers of liberty, capitalist prosperity, free market opportunity and the constitutional fettering of state power.

After all, you said you came to Washington to drain the Swamp, yet there is no more odious set of Swamp Creatures than the camarilla of NIH/CDC/FDA doctors and apparatchiks, along with their Big Pharma and Gates Vaccine lobby allies, who bamboozled you into the folly of Lockdown Nation last March.

But now—when its way past time to reverse course and repudiate your malpracticing doctors— you actually genuflect to their Mask Totem, when you should be declaring loudly and unequivocally the opposite: Namely, that the the coronavirus has meet it match in the immune systems of the overwhelming share of Americans, and that it’s beating a fast retreat into the archives of still another infectious winter virus that passed through the population and moved on.

On the one hand, the Grim Reaper of Covid has long since vacated the epicenter of its brief rampage in New York, where the foolish actions of Gauleiter Cuomo caused a surge in nursing home infections, sickness and death, which accounts almost entirely for the four week surge in the state’s WITH-Covid death count during April.

By contrast, during the current month thru July 20, New York has tested like crazy, but has come up with no cigar with respect to new Covid cases. Compared to a total of 1,250,000 tests during that 20-day period, only 13,872 have tested positive, and many of those are surely the same people taking and re-taking their PCP swab in order to gain license to go back to work.

In any event, the gross positive rate is just 1.1 percent and would probably well less than that if the data were de-duped.

Likewise, there have been an average of just 10 WITH-Covid deaths reported during the first three weeks of July, which self-evidently is a tiny fraction of 500-800 deaths per day—heavily in the nursing homes—reported during April. Moreover, there is no real mystery as to why the curve is (thankfully) plunging to the lower right of the chart and heading right off the page. This virus like other virulent influenza’s strikes the weakest and most vulnerable population first, and thereafter tends to meet its match as the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population join the battle.

What that natural progression of the contagion means, of course, is that Governor Cuomo’s economically destructive lockdown orders had virtually nothing to do with the coronavirus’ welcome retreat.

That’s evident by comparison with Sweden, which had virtually no lockdowns at all. As of yesterday, however, the WITH-Covid death rate was 130 per 100,000 persons for New York state overall, and 235, 223 and 200 per 100,000, respectively, in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn.

By contrast, the mortality rate in Sweden has been about 55 per 100,000, and the preponderant share of those have been people over 70 years, heavily institutionalized in care facilities. In any event, the chart below says it all. Governor Cuomo’s boot heels did not “flatten the curve” relative to the open social and economic regime in Sweden, and also resulted in a 2.5X higher mortality rate on a cumulative basis.

By the same token, there is no “second wave” crisis in the so-called hot spot areas of the Sunbelt, either. Like in the case of New York, the virus is simply moving through the population in a time frame that is a month or two lagged relative to the original contagion’s spread in the Northeast; and, again, it is meeting its match in the immune systems of the healthier parts of the population.

The proof for that is straight-forward and is measured by the hospitalization rate per new case. The latter has plunged from 15-20 percent in the early days of the contagion in these new so-called hot spot states, but is now in the low single digits. The data for new cases, hospitalizations and the hospitalization ratio for the first 20 days of July includes the following:

· Florida: 207,960 new cases, 6,726 additional hospitalizations=3.2 percent;

· Arizona: 65,968 new cases, 1,962 additional hospitalizations=3.0 percent;

· Tennessee: 36,245 new cases, 1,047 additional hospitalizations=2.9 percent;

· Georgia: 64,284 new cases, 3,996 additional hospitalizations=6.2 percent;

· Arkansas: 13,150 new cases, 883 additional hospitalizations=6.0 percent;

· South Carolina: 35,046 new cases, 1,328 additional hospitalizations=3.8 percent;

· Mississippi: 21,642 new cases, 610 additional hospitalizations=2.8 percent

In a word, hospitalization rates of 3-6 percent are not indicative of a public health crisis or a dread disease laying waste to the population. In fact, they are only slightly above the hospitalization rates for normal winter influenza.

The chart below is the CDC’s assessment for the 2010-2018 seasons, and shows that the hospitalization rate per infected case has averaged 1.5 percent-2.0 percent over that eight year period; and that’s against a generous guesstimate of total influenza illnesses, not lab confirmed cases as with the current Covid stats.

Still, the point hardly needs saying. We do not close the bars, restaurants, gyms, hair salons, movies, malls etc. every winter owing to the flu. Yet that’s exactly what the Donald’ camarilla of malpracticing doctors are now urging for the states listed above in the face of a virus that is only slightly more severe than normal.

Stated differently, even now 94-97 percent of the ballyhooed “new cases” in the so-called Red Zone states are either asymptomatic or result in mild illness and recovery at home. The fact that what the Donald mistakenly thought was the Greatest Economy Ever is now swamped in unemployment, business failures, payment delinquencies and a fearful, muzzle-ridden public is ultimately the doing of the Masked Man above.

Harry Truman was right. The buck stops in the Oval Office.

At the end of the day, it was the Donald who empowered Dr. Fauci, who, in turn, paved the way for the governors, public health departments, mayors and lesser officials to attack the livelihoods and well-being of their own constituents in their tens of millions.

To add insult to injury, however, you can leave it to Dr. Fauci. The man had the gall to offer New York state as a shinning example to the rest of the nation when, in fact, it’s governor is damn near criminally negligent on the state’s nursing home death tsunami alone.

The fact is, New York’s mortality rate per 100,000 is well more than 2X greater than the European basket cases of Italy, Spain and the UK, and is actually more than 4.5X higher than Florida’s and 9.5X higher than that of Texas.

In the face of such abysmal judgement, the Donald’s trademark “you’re fired” would be the least that might be expected. But what we got was not just the ostentatious tweet of POTUS in a muzzle, but a renewed signal for the power-grabbing, Trump-hating local Dem officialdom to intensify their attacks on the main street economy.

The Dem rulers of Broward County, Florida, for example, have just now issued an order requiring homeowners to enforce the mask rule against visitors in their own homes-–upon penalty of fine or jail and subject to county inspector surveillance.

Likewise, County mayor Dale Holness’ announced a curfew and criminal penalties for having more than 10 people in your own home, or being part of a gathering of more than 10 people inside a PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

Of course, Broward County is just a microcosm of the economy-crushing mayhem that has been unleashed by the Donald’s own presumptive subordinates. This is no longer just a few aggressive governors like those of New York, New Jersey and Michigan in the early days of the pandemic: What you have now is a veritable army of petty officialdom, enforcers and self-appointed snitches literally tearing apart the fabric of economic and social life in much of America.

Of course, the Donald is clueless about this because the retainers and sycophants who surround him insure he doesn’t grasp the enormity of the economic collapse that has been triggered, and which shows no sign of some kind of miraculous “V”-shaped rebound.

Nor does he realize that the pre-Covid economy was a fragile tinder-box of debt, speculation and malinvestment that was stumbling forward on cyclical fumes and the residual growth momentum of capitalism—even in the face of the giant obstacles to sustainable prosperity stood up by the state and especially its central banking branch.

So any old Black Swan could have triggered the deep recession now underway. But owing to the sudden, concentrated blunderbuss attacks of Lockdown Nation, this one will prove to be the blackist avian visitor of all.

For instance, nothing like this chart has ever been seen before in the annals of modern history. Compared to a peak of 6.6 million UI beneficiaries at the bottom of the Great Recession (May 2009), there are now upwards of 32 million workers drawing state and Federal UI benefits. That’s more than 20 percent of the 158 million employed workers as of February.

Ordinarily, the jolt to income and spending from a 32 million person army of the unemployed would have sent the US economy reeling months ago because in the hand-to-mouth world that the Donald inherited, 80 percent of the households have no meaningful financial cushion or rainy day funds.

Of course, that unemployment based income and spending plunge is now being temporarily cushioned by the unprecedented eruption of free stuff from Uncle Sam that was packed into the Everything Bailouts three months ago. That includes upwards of $500 billion of wage support via the PPP program at the SBA, the $1,200 helicopter checks which went out to 160 million citizens and especially the $600 per week Federal “top-up” on UI benefits.

The impact of the latter in disguising the economic pain implicit in the UI chart above cannot be over-emphasized. On a nationwide average basis, the regular state UI program pays about $500 per week or an annualized rate of $26,000 to covered workers.

In the middle of the night during the frenzied legislative sessions of late March, however, Congress upped the ante to $1,100 per week, which annualizes to $57,200.

Them there is different kettles of fish entirely!

But the Federal top-up also costs $75 billion per month and has put nearly two-thirds of unemployed recipients in a higher income bracket than when they were on the job drawing a paycheck; and, also, by the way, producing output of goods and services which are the real building blocks of the macro-economy.

It now comes to pass that at least some of the sleep-walking GOP senators have figured out that you can’t shell out a $75 billion per month dole for unemployment and expect the engines of economic life to restart or the tattered remains of Washington’s fiscal accounts to ever be repaired.

So there is a rather considerable chance that the battle over the impending Everything Bailout 4.0 will be prolonged, and that the giant air-cushion of transfer payments which has disguised the Lockdown Nation disaster will be abruptly deflated in August.

The chart below, in fact, shows how the phantasmagoria of free stuff from Washington since March has tuned upside down the traditional notion of a recession, and especially one where one-fifth of the labor force is unemployed. The chart shows total monthly household personal income—including dividends, interest and proprietors profits which mostly goes to the top 10 percent—-since January.

Incredibly, during April when the bottom literally dropped out of industries ranging from air travel to neighborhood restaurants and bars, total household income was actually 5 percent higher than it was during January—a time when both Wall Street and the Donald claimed the US economy was booming like never before.

Since then, household income has managed to stay right at the pre-Covid January level, notwithstanding a loss of wage and salary disbursements that is still running at a negative $850 billion annual rate.

What portends for August and many months to come, therefore, is the delayed income and spending contraction of a battered economy which has already experienced a double-digit plunge in the actual production of goods and services.

Needless to say, that’s going to shock both Wall Street and the Masked Man alike.

And it will be enough of a blow to voter confidence—even in the Trumpite precincts of Flyover America—so as to insure that the best outcome possible on November 3 will be the Mother-of-All-Hanging Chad battles at the Electoral College and Supreme Court, while the likely outcome is a return of the vengeful coalition of Clintonista poltroons and Progressive-Left ideologues to the seats of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

In either contingency, today’s lagging indicators of the underlying economic distress generated by Lockdown nation will be aggravated enormously. These charts on failing rent collections and small business closures are, in fact, just the tip of the iceberg—and will continue to worsen even if some gussied-up Everything Bailout 4.0 is cobbled together on Capitol Hill before the real election season blood-lettings get underway.

Indeed, on any number of high-frequency variables, the data has already plateaued and that’s before the August plunge and the most vicious election battle in modern history have taken their toll.

And now with the new lockdown orders and a renewed MSM campaign of Covid-Hysteria in the Sunbelt, there is indeed a “second wave” coming—that is, more hemorrhaging of jobs, incomes, defaults and business failures across the length and breath of main street America.

As we said, anyone who actually believed the Donald had any semblance of a plan for MAGA should now be asking “Who’s that Masked Man”?

We’re not.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in the UK yesterday, blaming China for the spread of the coronavirus and suggesting it was a purposeful move on the part of Beijing. Meanwhile in an incredible escalation, the US State Department has demanded that China evacuate its consulate in Houston, TX. Meanwhile US Defense Secretary Esper is threatening more US military for the South China Sea. Also in today’s Report: Ron Paul’s headlines and new Covid updates. Watch today’s Liberty Report:

A couple in St. Louis will face felony charges in their much-photographed defense of their home in a private, gated and locked community as BLM and other protesters broke through the gates and moved toward the couple’s home. Justice…or an attack on property rights and the Second Amendment. Plus in today’s Report: More threats to jail Covid-19 positive cases if they resist house arrest. Also – what happened on June 14th that led to the massive spike in “cases”? Watch today’s Liberty Report:

Everybody is talking about yesterday’s Chris Wallace interview with President Trump. Many in the mainstream media are praising Wallace’s forceful, even combative tone. And Fox News did “real time” fact checking of Trump’s claims. But beyond the blows exchanged, is Trump starting to understand how his opponents are using Covid as a tool of political warfare? Plus in today’s program: even with his wings clipped, Anthony Fauci is still spouting off in the media – did New York really do the best of any state on Covid? Plus more Covid updates – has the Sun Belt spike burned itself out? Watch today’s Liberty Report:

When it comes to the topic of clown cars, we’d say Dr. Fauci gets a limo version all to himself.

Yesterday he uttered the following incoherent babble, saying the recent surge in new cases is because the Virus Patrol didn’t go far enough in throwing 50 million Americans out of work:

‘We did not shut down entirely,’ Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said. ‘We need to draw back a few yards and say, “OK, we can’t stay shut down forever.” …You’ve got to shut down but then you’ve got to gradually open.’

Got that?

What does this pretentious old windbag think—-that the blooming, buzzing mass of a $21 trillion economy can be calibrated up and down by the week via some magical dimmer switch?

Never mind because he was then on to this preposterous comparison:

Fauci also said he expects the public to compare the Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 pandemic flu, which killed around 50 million people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Well, it so happens that the US death rate from the Spanish Flu was 655 per 100,000 persons (675,000 deaths in a population of 103 million). That’s obviously orders of magnitude larger than the 39 per 100,000 deaths to date from the Covid.

In fact, the impact of the Spanish Flu was not only 17X greater in terms of the overall mortality rate, but it was also a true Grim Reaper in the sense that it struck across the entire age spectrum of the population (dark blue bars).

It actually started in the giant domestic military training compounds stood up by Woodrow Wilson to join a European war that was none of America’s business, but the virus did kill tens of thousands of 18-30 year-old draftees in their own barracks long before they got to the killing fields of France.

By contrast, as we now surely understand, and you would think Fauci would, too, the Covid (light blue bars) is primarily a harvester of elderly persons already struggling with life-threatening respiratory, heart, vascular, renal and diabetic illnesses.

Accordingly, among the 191 million Americans under the age of 45 years, there have been only 1.5 WITH-Covid deaths per 100,000, while for the elderly, the opposite is true. Nearly 70,000 or more than 60 percent of all WITH-Covid death have been among the 75 years and older population, resulting in mortality rates as follows:

– 85 years & Over: 581 per 100,000 persons;
– 75-84 years: 200 per 100,000 persons;

Now, you don’t need to take a single class in epidemiology to understand a core truth: That is, when nearly 60 percent of the population under 45 years accounts for only 2.5 percent of the reported WITH-Covid deaths and has a rounding error mortality rate, while the 6.5 percent of the population 75 years and older accounts for 60 percent of the deaths—you don’t fight the disease with a one-size-fits all strategy of generic lockdowns, quarantines, and social regimentation.

And surely you don’t shutdown the schools, gyms, bars, restaurants, movies, ball games, concerts, beaches, theme parks etc. because the vulnerable elderly don’t patronize these venues in appreciable numbers anyway, and could easily be warned to stay strictly away.

The key point, however, is that this whole unspeakable Lockdown Folly does not remotely stem from the “science”, as the MSM supporters of Fauci claim.

It’s just a hair-brained experiment in social control that happened because the Donald was too weak, ill-informed, distracted, and innumerate to send Fauci and his camarilla of doctors and vaccine-peddlers packing when the mid-March guidelines were first issued by the CDC.

Yes, the Donald’s political enemies in the ranks of big city mayors and Blue State governors have feasted upon the chum Fauci & Co have persistently tossed into the fetid waters of national politics, but that doesn’t let Trump off the hook.

If the truth be told, this is the Trump Lockdown Folly and ranks among the greatest blunders ever committed by a US President. That’s because even at this late date nearly four months into the resulting economic disaster: 

Yet, the twin pillars of Fauci’s hare-brained social regimentation scheme assumes they very opposite: Namely, that healthy Americans must be put under house arrest because they are silent spreaders and killers of their fellow citizens; and that the disease is so virulent that its #1 enemy—the powerful immune system of every healthy American—cannot be trusted to do its job if the virus is permitted to follow its natural course of contagion and eventual herd immunity.

As to the silent spreaders trope, here is how the very head of WHO’s COVID-19 Task Force, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, recently explained that transmission of the virus from asymptomatic patients appears to be very rare:

It still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual.”

For crying out loud. That knocks the very rationale for stay-at-home orders to hundreds of millions of healthy citizens into a cocked hat.

In a constitutional democracy, where the liberties and properties of citizens are protected by law, you need overwhelming proof of an existential threat to society before ordering mass house arrests. But in this instance, the head of the WHO task force–the agency that fomented the whole coronavirus hysteria in the first place–has said quite unequivocally: No cigar!

In a word, Dr. Fauci is peddling dangerous humbug under the banner of pseudo-science, and should have been shut-up and forced into retirement long ago. The unfortunate truth, however, is that the Donald is too chicken to use the Fake “your fired” tool that made him a short-lived TV star, if not a successful businessman.

His defenders, of course, mumble that his hands are tied because Fauci is a member of the legally protected Senior Executive Service (SES). That’s Jimmy Carter’s gift to insubordinate bureaucracy, which your editor happily voted against back in the day—but the excuse is poppycock.

Under Federal law, Fauci can be fired if he is found to have engaged in—

misconduct, neglect of duty, malfeasance, or failure to accept a direct reassignment or to accompany a position in a transfer of function”, is or to be “less than successful [in his] executive performance.

If not “malfeasance”, what would you call the absolute savaging of the livelihoods and life’s work of tens of millions of American workers and small businessmen for no good reason of state, which have resulted from Fauci’s idiotic pronouncements and guidelines?

The thing is, after four months Fauci’s blatherings and instructions to state and local authorities have fomented an outright public Hysteria of biblical proportions.

It is not just that officialdom has closed restaurants and gyms via unconstitutional “takings” of their owners’ properties. By now, Fauci’s Virus Patrol and its megaphones and misanthropes in the MSM have rendered large portions of the American public fearful about leaving their own homes.

And, needless to say, they have also given the Donald’s legions of rabid political enemies license to stage malign theatrics in the name of Covid-fighting that would be unthinkable under any other circumstances.

For instance, it has now been announced that the school districts of Los Angeles and San Diego, which collectively serve nearly one million students, will not have in-person teaching to start the school year.

But if you are conversant with any facts at all, you can only sputter: WTF!

There are nine million school age children in California, and not a single WITH-Covid death has occurred among them.

That’s right. There have been 27,400 positive tests among these nine million kids, but all of them, positively all of them, have been either asymptomatic or mildly ill—as children are wont to become—and have recovered.

Yet here is where America’s growing fleet of clown cars comes in. It seems that the politicization has gone so far off the deep end that the LA teachers union–35,000 strong—is now taking the schools hostage for their own parochial ends.

They recently proclaimed that no schools should open in LA until there is a Charter School freeze; the police are defunded; Medicare-for-all is adopted by the US Congress; new state taxes on the wealthy are enacted; and there is a Federal bailout of the LA school district.

You can’t make this stuff up. And while they were taking the children hostage in the name of Covid-fighting, they also insisted that the already dysfunctional schools of LA become completely pointless:

The union outlined numerous major provisions it says will be necessary to reopen schools again, including sequestering students in small groups throughout the school day, providing students with masks and other forms of protective equipment, and re-designing school layouts in order to facilitate ‘social distancing.’

Of course, the latest outbursts of this kind of mindless social destruction has been fueled by the absolute mendacity of the Virus Patrol and its MSM megaphones with respect to the so-called outbreak of new cases in the Sun Belt states.

But the whole brouhaha is a crock. There is no public health crisis in the so-called hot spots, as the up-to-date chart below makes abundantly clear.

Yes, the 42-day trend of “new cases” has risen sharply in tandem with far more testing, and repeat testing of the same individuals—outcomes that were inherent in re-opening plans, which required employers to have their employees tested as a condition of operating.

But, alas, the death count trend in these 50 counties has not risen at all—except for the last few days when a lot of “catch-up” data for earlier fatalities was thrown into the data hoppers by some of the counties involved.

That hasn’t stopped the Covid-Howlers from proclaiming a phony medical crisis in Texas and elsewhere, with the same old tropes about overflowing hospitals and strained ICU capacity in places like Houston.

But as the eagle-eyed maven of the corona-data, Alex Berenson, tweeted this AM, it’s just a big fat lie. While CNN may have managed to find one or two crowded facilities in the whole of the Houston-Harris county region of some 5 million souls, there are actually still more than 2,500 empty hospital beds in the area.

Here’s the thing. The Virus Patrol has switched from the death count to the “case” count because the latter is not at the 3,000 per day predicted by the CDC in early May, and ballyhooed by the NYT and MSM as the leading edge of a horrid “second wave” coming down the pike.

In fact, during July to date (thru the 14th), the daily WITH-Covid death count has averaged 613, or only one-fifth of the projected June-July-August surge; and even that level is suspect, given the growing evidence that many local jurisdictions are doing retrospective death audits to pad their case counts.

In any event, the readily available state-by-state data tells you all you need to know. This so-called Sun Belt wave of cases is, indeed, the equivalent of the normal flu.

In the case of Florida, for instance, during the first 14 days of July, there have been 139,195 new cases reported, but only 4,322 new hospitalizations. So that means only 3.1 percent of this ballyhooed surge of cases was sick enough to even require hospitalization.

Needless to say, that’s not a crisis; it’s just one more part of the indictment against Fauci and his gang of malpracticing doctors. They have put the anti-Trump press into a rabid feeding frenzy, and that coverage, in turn, has caused the American public to head back into their Covid holes.

As it happened, three of the nation’s largest banks reported their totally confected earnings for Q2 this AM, but the one thing that stood out as meaningful was a collective $28 billion provision for future loan losses. That is, they see the massive wave of defaults set in motion by Fauci’s misbegotten Lockdown Nation strategy, and are getting prepared for the worst.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s lunatic $3 trillion injection of liquidity into the canyons of Wall Street since the Lockdown Nation incepted in mid-March continues to do its mischief, fueling a stock market bubble that gets more ludicrous (and dangerous) by the day.

We noted yesterday that during the Monday’s great reversal on the stock market that Tesla had gained a “GM” ($38 billion) in the morning spike, but lost a “BMW” ($42 billion) in the afternoon.

A timely piece by Bloomberg this AM helps explain how this kind of madness actually happened:

Almost 40,000 Robinhood accounts added shares of the automaker during a single fourhour span on Monday, according to website Robintrack.net, which compiles data on the investing platform that’s much beloved by day trading millennials.

The frenzy in interest means that as of the end of Monday’s trading session, there are now roughly 457,000 users on the Robinhood app that hold shares of the company in some form. That makes it the 10th-most popular stock on the platform, ahead of even Amazon.com Inc., which is held by 358,000 users.

The one-day return may not have turned out so well. Tesla was up as much as 16 percent at one point before paring gains through the day and finishing 3 percent lower. It was a rare losing day for the high flying stock, which has surged 56 percent over the past 10 days.

So how did these mindless gamblers reason about a company that has never, ever made a four-quarter profit, and which reported Q2 volumes well below last year, in coming to a peak valuation of $325 billion Monday morning?

Well, a sell-side analyst explained both that question, and the large fleet of clown cars now cruising up and down Wall Street about as well as could be expected. Said this master of the crystal ball:

‘At the current price, Tesla’s stock reflects an expectation of 2030 volume of 5 million units, which is more than ten times what the company appears on track to achieve this year,’ Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said.

Why, you don’t say!

Then again, projecting EV car sales in the year 2030 is probably as good a use for Wall Street’s clown car riders as any other.

Certainly, it would not dawn on them to ask whether a stock market held up by the Terrific Ten, and especially the FAANGs and Microsoft, has anything at all to do with the dire state of the US economy.

It seems these trading sardines make up a quarter of the S&P 500 index by value, but just 8 percent of its composite revenues and a mere 1 percent of jobs in the American workforce.

So, yes, the Acela Corridor has the clown cars coming and going— even as the stock bubble which will take down this whole fantasy reaches its historic asymptote, as we will essay further in Part 3.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

When it comes to the topic of clown cars, we’d say Dr. Fauci gets a limo version all to himself.

Yesterday he uttered the following incoherent babble, saying the recent surge in new cases is because the Virus Patrol didn’t go far enough in throwing 50 million Americans out of work:

‘We did not shut down entirely,’ Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said. ‘We need to draw back a few yards and say, “OK, we can’t stay shut down forever.” …You’ve got to shut down but then you’ve got to gradually open.’

Got that?

What does this pretentious old windbag think—-that the blooming, buzzing mass of a $21 trillion economy can be calibrated up and down by the week via some magical dimmer switch?

Never mind because he was then on to this preposterous comparison:

Fauci also said he expects the public to compare the Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 pandemic flu, which killed around 50 million people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Well, it so happens that the US death rate from the Spanish Flu was 655 per 100,000 persons (675,000 deaths in a population of 103 million). That’s obviously orders of magnitude larger than the 39 per 100,000 deaths to date from the Covid.

In fact, the impact of the Spanish Flu was not only 17X greater in terms of the overall mortality rate, but it was also a true Grim Reaper in the sense that it struck across the entire age spectrum of the population (dark blue bars).

It actually started in the giant domestic military training compounds stood up by Woodrow Wilson to join a European war that was none of America’s business, but the virus did kill tens of thousands of 18-30 year-old draftees in their own barracks long before they got to the killing fields of France.

By contrast, as we now surely understand, and you would think Fauci would, too, the Covid (light blue bars) is primarily a harvester of elderly persons already struggling with life-threatening respiratory, heart, vascular, renal and diabetic illnesses.

Accordingly, among the 191 million Americans under the age of 45 years, there have been only 1.5 WITH-Covid deaths per 100,000, while for the elderly, the opposite is true. Nearly 70,000 or more than 60 percent of all WITH-Covid death have been among the 75 years and older population, resulting in mortality rates as follows:

– 85 years & Over: 581 per 100,000 persons;
– 75-84 years: 200 per 100,000 persons;

Now, you don’t need to take a single class in epidemiology to understand a core truth: That is, when nearly 60 percent of the population under 45 years accounts for only 2.5 percent of the reported WITH-Covid deaths and has a rounding error mortality rate, while the 6.5 percent of the population 75 years and older accounts for 60 percent of the deaths—you don’t fight the disease with a one-size-fits all strategy of generic lockdowns, quarantines, and social regimentation.

And surely you don’t shutdown the schools, gyms, bars, restaurants, movies, ball games, concerts, beaches, theme parks etc. because the vulnerable elderly don’t patronize these venues in appreciable numbers anyway, and could easily be warned to stay strictly away.

The key point, however, is that this whole unspeakable Lockdown Folly does not remotely stem from the “science”, as the MSM supporters of Fauci claim.

It’s just a hair-brained experiment in social control that happened because the Donald was too weak, ill-informed, distracted, and innumerate to send Fauci and his camarilla of doctors and vaccine-peddlers packing when the mid-March guidelines were first issued by the CDC.

Yes, the Donald’s political enemies in the ranks of big city mayors and Blue State governors have feasted upon the chum Fauci & Co have persistently tossed into the fetid waters of national politics, but that doesn’t let Trump off the hook.

If the truth be told, this is the Trump Lockdown Folly and ranks among the greatest blunders ever committed by a US President. That’s because even at this late date nearly four months into the resulting economic disaster: 

Yet, the twin pillars of Fauci’s hare-brained social regimentation scheme assumes they very opposite: Namely, that healthy Americans must be put under house arrest because they are silent spreaders and killers of their fellow citizens; and that the disease is so virulent that its #1 enemy—the powerful immune system of every healthy American—cannot be trusted to do its job if the virus is permitted to follow its natural course of contagion and eventual herd immunity.

As to the silent spreaders trope, here is how the very head of WHO’s COVID-19 Task Force, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, recently explained that transmission of the virus from asymptomatic patients appears to be very rare:

It still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual.”

For crying out loud. That knocks the very rationale for stay-at-home orders to hundreds of millions of healthy citizens into a cocked hat.

In a constitutional democracy, where the liberties and properties of citizens are protected by law, you need overwhelming proof of an existential threat to society before ordering mass house arrests. But in this instance, the head of the WHO task force–the agency that fomented the whole coronavirus hysteria in the first place–has said quite unequivocally: No cigar!

In a word, Dr. Fauci is peddling dangerous humbug under the banner of pseudo-science, and should have been shut-up and forced into retirement long ago. The unfortunate truth, however, is that the Donald is too chicken to use the Fake “your fired” tool that made him a short-lived TV star, if not a successful businessman.

His defenders, of course, mumble that his hands are tied because Fauci is a member of the legally protected Senior Executive Service (SES). That’s Jimmy Carter’s gift to insubordinate bureaucracy, which your editor happily voted against back in the day—but the excuse is poppycock.

Under Federal law, Fauci can be fired if he is found to have engaged in—

misconduct, neglect of duty, malfeasance, or failure to accept a direct reassignment or to accompany a position in a transfer of function”, is or to be “less than successful [in his] executive performance.

If not “malfeasance”, what would you call the absolute savaging of the livelihoods and life’s work of tens of millions of American workers and small businessmen for no good reason of state, which have resulted from Fauci’s idiotic pronouncements and guidelines?

The thing is, after four months Fauci’s blatherings and instructions to state and local authorities have fomented an outright public Hysteria of biblical proportions.

It is not just that officialdom has closed restaurants and gyms via unconstitutional “takings” of their owners’ properties. By now, Fauci’s Virus Patrol and its megaphones and misanthropes in the MSM have rendered large portions of the American public fearful about leaving their own homes.

And, needless to say, they have also given the Donald’s legions of rabid political enemies license to stage malign theatrics in the name of Covid-fighting that would be unthinkable under any other circumstances.

For instance, it has now been announced that the school districts of Los Angeles and San Diego, which collectively serve nearly one million students, will not have in-person teaching to start the school year.

But if you are conversant with any facts at all, you can only sputter: WTF!

There are nine million school age children in California, and not a single WITH-Covid death has occurred among them.

That’s right. There have been 27,400 positive tests among these nine million kids, but all of them, positively all of them, have been either asymptomatic or mildly ill—as children are wont to become—and have recovered.

Yet here is where America’s growing fleet of clown cars comes in. It seems that the politicization has gone so far off the deep end that the LA teachers union–35,000 strong—is now taking the schools hostage for their own parochial ends.

They recently proclaimed that no schools should open in LA until there is a Charter School freeze; the police are defunded; Medicare-for-all is adopted by the US Congress; new state taxes on the wealthy are enacted; and there is a Federal bailout of the LA school district.

You can’t make this stuff up. And while they were taking the children hostage in the name of Covid-fighting, they also insisted that the already dysfunctional schools of LA become completely pointless:

The union outlined numerous major provisions it says will be necessary to reopen schools again, including sequestering students in small groups throughout the school day, providing students with masks and other forms of protective equipment, and re-designing school layouts in order to facilitate ‘social distancing.’

Of course, the latest outbursts of this kind of mindless social destruction has been fueled by the absolute mendacity of the Virus Patrol and its MSM megaphones with respect to the so-called outbreak of new cases in the Sun Belt states.

But the whole brouhaha is a crock. There is no public health crisis in the so-called hot spots, as the up-to-date chart below makes abundantly clear.

Yes, the 42-day trend of “new cases” has risen sharply in tandem with far more testing, and repeat testing of the same individuals—outcomes that were inherent in re-opening plans, which required employers to have their employees tested as a condition of operating.

But, alas, the death count trend in these 50 counties has not risen at all—except for the last few days when a lot of “catch-up” data for earlier fatalities was thrown into the data hoppers by some of the counties involved.

That hasn’t stopped the Covid-Howlers from proclaiming a phony medical crisis in Texas and elsewhere, with the same old tropes about overflowing hospitals and strained ICU capacity in places like Houston.

But as the eagle-eyed maven of the corona-data, Alex Berenson, tweeted this AM, it’s just a big fat lie. While CNN may have managed to find one or two crowded facilities in the whole of the Houston-Harris county region of some 5 million souls, there are actually still more than 2,500 empty hospital beds in the area.

Here’s the thing. The Virus Patrol has switched from the death count to the “case” count because the latter is not at the 3,000 per day predicted by the CDC in early May, and ballyhooed by the NYT and MSM as the leading edge of a horrid “second wave” coming down the pike.

In fact, during July to date (thru the 14th), the daily WITH-Covid death count has averaged 613, or only one-fifth of the projected June-July-August surge; and even that level is suspect, given the growing evidence that many local jurisdictions are doing retrospective death audits to pad their case counts.

In any event, the readily available state-by-state data tells you all you need to know. This so-called Sun Belt wave of cases is, indeed, the equivalent of the normal flu.

In the case of Florida, for instance, during the first 14 days of July, there have been 139,195 new cases reported, but only 4,322 new hospitalizations. So that means only 3.1 percent of this ballyhooed surge of cases was sick enough to even require hospitalization.

Needless to say, that’s not a crisis; it’s just one more part of the indictment against Fauci and his gang of malpracticing doctors. They have put the anti-Trump press into a rabid feeding frenzy, and that coverage, in turn, has caused the American public to head back into their Covid holes.

As it happened, three of the nation’s largest banks reported their totally confected earnings for Q2 this AM, but the one thing that stood out as meaningful was a collective $28 billion provision for future loan losses. That is, they see the massive wave of defaults set in motion by Fauci’s misbegotten Lockdown Nation strategy, and are getting prepared for the worst.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s lunatic $3 trillion injection of liquidity into the canyons of Wall Street since the Lockdown Nation incepted in mid-March continues to do its mischief, fueling a stock market bubble that gets more ludicrous (and dangerous) by the day.

We noted yesterday that during the Monday’s great reversal on the stock market that Tesla had gained a “GM” ($38 billion) in the morning spike, but lost a “BMW” ($42 billion) in the afternoon.

A timely piece by Bloomberg this AM helps explain how this kind of madness actually happened:

Almost 40,000 Robinhood accounts added shares of the automaker during a single fourhour span on Monday, according to website Robintrack.net, which compiles data on the investing platform that’s much beloved by day trading millennials.

The frenzy in interest means that as of the end of Monday’s trading session, there are now roughly 457,000 users on the Robinhood app that hold shares of the company in some form. That makes it the 10th-most popular stock on the platform, ahead of even Amazon.com Inc., which is held by 358,000 users.

The one-day return may not have turned out so well. Tesla was up as much as 16 percent at one point before paring gains through the day and finishing 3 percent lower. It was a rare losing day for the high flying stock, which has surged 56 percent over the past 10 days.

So how did these mindless gamblers reason about a company that has never, ever made a four-quarter profit, and which reported Q2 volumes well below last year, in coming to a peak valuation of $325 billion Monday morning?

Well, a sell-side analyst explained both that question, and the large fleet of clown cars now cruising up and down Wall Street about as well as could be expected. Said this master of the crystal ball:

‘At the current price, Tesla’s stock reflects an expectation of 2030 volume of 5 million units, which is more than ten times what the company appears on track to achieve this year,’ Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said.

Why, you don’t say!

Then again, projecting EV car sales in the year 2030 is probably as good a use for Wall Street’s clown car riders as any other.

Certainly, it would not dawn on them to ask whether a stock market held up by the Terrific Ten, and especially the FAANGs and Microsoft, has anything at all to do with the dire state of the US economy.

It seems these trading sardines make up a quarter of the S&P 500 index by value, but just 8 percent of its composite revenues and a mere 1 percent of jobs in the American workforce.

So, yes, the Acela Corridor has the clown cars coming and going— even as the stock bubble which will take down this whole fantasy reaches its historic asymptote, as we will essay further in Part 3.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

When it comes to the topic of clown cars, we’d say Dr. Fauci gets a limo version all to himself.

Yesterday he uttered the following incoherent babble, saying the recent surge in new cases is because the Virus Patrol didn’t go far enough in throwing 50 million Americans out of work:

‘We did not shut down entirely,’ Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said. ‘We need to draw back a few yards and say, “OK, we can’t stay shut down forever.” …You’ve got to shut down but then you’ve got to gradually open.’

Got that?

What does this pretentious old windbag think—-that the blooming, buzzing mass of a $21 trillion economy can be calibrated up and down by the week via some magical dimmer switch?

Never mind because he was then on to this preposterous comparison:

Fauci also said he expects the public to compare the Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 pandemic flu, which killed around 50 million people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Well, it so happens that the US death rate from the Spanish Flu was 655 per 100,000 persons (675,000 deaths in a population of 103 million). That’s obviously orders of magnitude larger than the 39 per 100,000 deaths to date from the Covid.

In fact, the impact of the Spanish Flu was not only 17X greater in terms of the overall mortality rate, but it was also a true Grim Reaper in the sense that it struck across the entire age spectrum of the population (dark blue bars).

It actually started in the giant domestic military training compounds stood up by Woodrow Wilson to join a European war that was none of America’s business, but the virus did kill tens of thousands of 18-30 year-old draftees in their own barracks long before they got to the killing fields of France.

By contrast, as we now surely understand, and you would think Fauci would, too, the Covid (light blue bars) is primarily a harvester of elderly persons already struggling with life-threatening respiratory, heart, vascular, renal and diabetic illnesses.

Accordingly, among the 191 million Americans under the age of 45 years, there have been only 1.5 WITH-Covid deaths per 100,000, while for the elderly, the opposite is true. Nearly 70,000 or more than 60 percent of all WITH-Covid death have been among the 75 years and older population, resulting in mortality rates as follows:

– 85 years & Over: 581 per 100,000 persons;
– 75-84 years: 200 per 100,000 persons;

Now, you don’t need to take a single class in epidemiology to understand a core truth: That is, when nearly 60 percent of the population under 45 years accounts for only 2.5 percent of the reported WITH-Covid deaths and has a rounding error mortality rate, while the 6.5 percent of the population 75 years and older accounts for 60 percent of the deaths—you don’t fight the disease with a one-size-fits all strategy of generic lockdowns, quarantines, and social regimentation.

And surely you don’t shutdown the schools, gyms, bars, restaurants, movies, ball games, concerts, beaches, theme parks etc. because the vulnerable elderly don’t patronize these venues in appreciable numbers anyway, and could easily be warned to stay strictly away.

The key point, however, is that this whole unspeakable Lockdown Folly does not remotely stem from the “science”, as the MSM supporters of Fauci claim.

It’s just a hair-brained experiment in social control that happened because the Donald was too weak, ill-informed, distracted, and innumerate to send Fauci and his camarilla of doctors and vaccine-peddlers packing when the mid-March guidelines were first issued by the CDC.

Yes, the Donald’s political enemies in the ranks of big city mayors and Blue State governors have feasted upon the chum Fauci & Co have persistently tossed into the fetid waters of national politics, but that doesn’t let Trump off the hook.

If the truth be told, this is the Trump Lockdown Folly and ranks among the greatest blunders ever committed by a US President. That’s because even at this late date nearly four months into the resulting economic disaster: 

Yet, the twin pillars of Fauci’s hare-brained social regimentation scheme assumes they very opposite: Namely, that healthy Americans must be put under house arrest because they are silent spreaders and killers of their fellow citizens; and that the disease is so virulent that its #1 enemy—the powerful immune system of every healthy American—cannot be trusted to do its job if the virus is permitted to follow its natural course of contagion and eventual herd immunity.

As to the silent spreaders trope, here is how the very head of WHO’s COVID-19 Task Force, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, recently explained that transmission of the virus from asymptomatic patients appears to be very rare:

It still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual.”

For crying out loud. That knocks the very rationale for stay-at-home orders to hundreds of millions of healthy citizens into a cocked hat.

In a constitutional democracy, where the liberties and properties of citizens are protected by law, you need overwhelming proof of an existential threat to society before ordering mass house arrests. But in this instance, the head of the WHO task force–the agency that fomented the whole coronavirus hysteria in the first place–has said quite unequivocally: No cigar!

In a word, Dr. Fauci is peddling dangerous humbug under the banner of pseudo-science, and should have been shut-up and forced into retirement long ago. The unfortunate truth, however, is that the Donald is too chicken to use the Fake “your fired” tool that made him a short-lived TV star, if not a successful businessman.

His defenders, of course, mumble that his hands are tied because Fauci is a member of the legally protected Senior Executive Service (SES). That’s Jimmy Carter’s gift to insubordinate bureaucracy, which your editor happily voted against back in the day—but the excuse is poppycock.

Under Federal law, Fauci can be fired if he is found to have engaged in—

misconduct, neglect of duty, malfeasance, or failure to accept a direct reassignment or to accompany a position in a transfer of function”, is or to be “less than successful [in his] executive performance.

If not “malfeasance”, what would you call the absolute savaging of the livelihoods and life’s work of tens of millions of American workers and small businessmen for no good reason of state, which have resulted from Fauci’s idiotic pronouncements and guidelines?

The thing is, after four months Fauci’s blatherings and instructions to state and local authorities have fomented an outright public Hysteria of biblical proportions.

It is not just that officialdom has closed restaurants and gyms via unconstitutional “takings” of their owners’ properties. By now, Fauci’s Virus Patrol and its megaphones and misanthropes in the MSM have rendered large portions of the American public fearful about leaving their own homes.

And, needless to say, they have also given the Donald’s legions of rabid political enemies license to stage malign theatrics in the name of Covid-fighting that would be unthinkable under any other circumstances.

For instance, it has now been announced that the school districts of Los Angeles and San Diego, which collectively serve nearly one million students, will not have in-person teaching to start the school year.

But if you are conversant with any facts at all, you can only sputter: WTF!

There are nine million school age children in California, and not a single WITH-Covid death has occurred among them.

That’s right. There have been 27,400 positive tests among these nine million kids, but all of them, positively all of them, have been either asymptomatic or mildly ill—as children are wont to become—and have recovered.

Yet here is where America’s growing fleet of clown cars comes in. It seems that the politicization has gone so far off the deep end that the LA teachers union–35,000 strong—is now taking the schools hostage for their own parochial ends.

They recently proclaimed that no schools should open in LA until there is a Charter School freeze; the police are defunded; Medicare-for-all is adopted by the US Congress; new state taxes on the wealthy are enacted; and there is a Federal bailout of the LA school district.

You can’t make this stuff up. And while they were taking the children hostage in the name of Covid-fighting, they also insisted that the already dysfunctional schools of LA become completely pointless:

The union outlined numerous major provisions it says will be necessary to reopen schools again, including sequestering students in small groups throughout the school day, providing students with masks and other forms of protective equipment, and re-designing school layouts in order to facilitate ‘social distancing.’

Of course, the latest outbursts of this kind of mindless social destruction has been fueled by the absolute mendacity of the Virus Patrol and its MSM megaphones with respect to the so-called outbreak of new cases in the Sun Belt states.

But the whole brouhaha is a crock. There is no public health crisis in the so-called hot spots, as the up-to-date chart below makes abundantly clear.

Yes, the 42-day trend of “new cases” has risen sharply in tandem with far more testing, and repeat testing of the same individuals—outcomes that were inherent in re-opening plans, which required employers to have their employees tested as a condition of operating.

But, alas, the death count trend in these 50 counties has not risen at all—except for the last few days when a lot of “catch-up” data for earlier fatalities was thrown into the data hoppers by some of the counties involved.

That hasn’t stopped the Covid-Howlers from proclaiming a phony medical crisis in Texas and elsewhere, with the same old tropes about overflowing hospitals and strained ICU capacity in places like Houston.

But as the eagle-eyed maven of the corona-data, Alex Berenson, tweeted this AM, it’s just a big fat lie. While CNN may have managed to find one or two crowded facilities in the whole of the Houston-Harris county region of some 5 million souls, there are actually still more than 2,500 empty hospital beds in the area.

Here’s the thing. The Virus Patrol has switched from the death count to the “case” count because the latter is not at the 3,000 per day predicted by the CDC in early May, and ballyhooed by the NYT and MSM as the leading edge of a horrid “second wave” coming down the pike.

In fact, during July to date (thru the 14th), the daily WITH-Covid death count has averaged 613, or only one-fifth of the projected June-July-August surge; and even that level is suspect, given the growing evidence that many local jurisdictions are doing retrospective death audits to pad their case counts.

In any event, the readily available state-by-state data tells you all you need to know. This so-called Sun Belt wave of cases is, indeed, the equivalent of the normal flu.

In the case of Florida, for instance, during the first 14 days of July, there have been 139,195 new cases reported, but only 4,322 new hospitalizations. So that means only 3.1 percent of this ballyhooed surge of cases was sick enough to even require hospitalization.

Needless to say, that’s not a crisis; it’s just one more part of the indictment against Fauci and his gang of malpracticing doctors. They have put the anti-Trump press into a rabid feeding frenzy, and that coverage, in turn, has caused the American public to head back into their Covid holes.

As it happened, three of the nation’s largest banks reported their totally confected earnings for Q2 this AM, but the one thing that stood out as meaningful was a collective $28 billion provision for future loan losses. That is, they see the massive wave of defaults set in motion by Fauci’s misbegotten Lockdown Nation strategy, and are getting prepared for the worst.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s lunatic $3 trillion injection of liquidity into the canyons of Wall Street since the Lockdown Nation incepted in mid-March continues to do its mischief, fueling a stock market bubble that gets more ludicrous (and dangerous) by the day.

We noted yesterday that during the Monday’s great reversal on the stock market that Tesla had gained a “GM” ($38 billion) in the morning spike, but lost a “BMW” ($42 billion) in the afternoon.

A timely piece by Bloomberg this AM helps explain how this kind of madness actually happened:

Almost 40,000 Robinhood accounts added shares of the automaker during a single fourhour span on Monday, according to website Robintrack.net, which compiles data on the investing platform that’s much beloved by day trading millennials.

The frenzy in interest means that as of the end of Monday’s trading session, there are now roughly 457,000 users on the Robinhood app that hold shares of the company in some form. That makes it the 10th-most popular stock on the platform, ahead of even Amazon.com Inc., which is held by 358,000 users.

The one-day return may not have turned out so well. Tesla was up as much as 16 percent at one point before paring gains through the day and finishing 3 percent lower. It was a rare losing day for the high flying stock, which has surged 56 percent over the past 10 days.

So how did these mindless gamblers reason about a company that has never, ever made a four-quarter profit, and which reported Q2 volumes well below last year, in coming to a peak valuation of $325 billion Monday morning?

Well, a sell-side analyst explained both that question, and the large fleet of clown cars now cruising up and down Wall Street about as well as could be expected. Said this master of the crystal ball:

‘At the current price, Tesla’s stock reflects an expectation of 2030 volume of 5 million units, which is more than ten times what the company appears on track to achieve this year,’ Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said.

Why, you don’t say!

Then again, projecting EV car sales in the year 2030 is probably as good a use for Wall Street’s clown car riders as any other.

Certainly, it would not dawn on them to ask whether a stock market held up by the Terrific Ten, and especially the FAANGs and Microsoft, has anything at all to do with the dire state of the US economy.

It seems these trading sardines make up a quarter of the S&P 500 index by value, but just 8 percent of its composite revenues and a mere 1 percent of jobs in the American workforce.

So, yes, the Acela Corridor has the clown cars coming and going— even as the stock bubble which will take down this whole fantasy reaches its historic asymptote, as we will essay further in Part 3.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

Explosive new information has revealed how President Trump in 2018 signed a presidential intelligence finding that gave the CIA unprecedented leeway to conduct secret warfare against Washington’s declared enemies. Then-CIA director Mike Pompeo was handed a blank check to attack even foreign charities and news outlets. Plus in today’s program: The ongoing US war against the Nordstream pipeline and coronavirus hysteria raised to unprecedented levels. Watch today’s Liberty Report:

For many weeks, there has been an incessant drumbeat of articles with titles touting the “the failure of the country’s no-lockdown coronavirus strategy,” that “Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale,” and “How Sweden Screwed Up.”

It is common to read articles stating that Sweden has one of the world’s worst death rates for COVID-19.

This, however, remains a matter of perspective.

Sweden’s total deaths per million in population as of July 14 is 549. That’s considerably lower than the deaths per million rate in the UK, which is 662, and in Spain, which is 608. In Belgium, the death rate is 884.

Moreover, the Sweden deaths per million is many times better than the rates found in New Jersey and New York: 1,763 and 1,669.

An astute reader, however, will quickly notice that articles condemning Sweden’s “failure” rarely if ever mention these comparisons. Instead, anti-Sweden articles are careful to only mention countries with far lower deaths per million, usually Denmark and Norway. A nonspecific stock phrase is generally inserted which repeats that Sweden has: “a far higher mortality rate than its neighbours.”

Articles about countries with far more deaths per million than Sweden often make excuses for those governments. In May, for example, the BBC repeated the Belgian government’s talking points, which attempted to explain that things aren’t as bad as they seem in Belgium. In places where harsh lockdowns were implemented—such as New York or the UK— the explanation is that these countries implemented their lockdowns too late.

But no matter what the data shows, it is always assumed that lockdowns work well, and the fact that nonlockdown Sweden has a death rate similar to harsh-lockdown France can only be explained by claiming France didn’t lock down harshly enough or long enough.

Meanwhile, the evidence that lockdowns actually work remains spotty at best. The results we get from lockdown countries vary wildly, yet commentators ignore this and stick to a dogmatic refrain: lockdowns always work, and Sweden “screwed up.”

Now, global “experts,” such as those at the World Health Organization (WHO), are claiming that Sweden is among the countries most likely to have a resurgence in COVID-19.

So far, these is no evidence of this at all. Two weeks after the WHO’s prediction, both cases and deaths in Sweden continue to trend downward.

Indeed, looking at this, one might conclude that thanks to Sweden we know what both lockdown and nonlockdown countries look like: they look remarkably similar in some cases.

Similarly, in the US we have some states that had relatively short and less-harsh lockdowns, which we can compare to states with very strict lockdowns. In many cases, the states with the mild lockdowns continue to have total deaths that are small fractions of those in areas with far more harsh measures.

Advocates of lockdowns insist that we must only “wait two week” and matters in Texas will look just like those in New York. Anything’s possible, but it’s pretty clear any sort of equivalence between the two areas is going to require more than “two weeks” to come about. After all, after failing to implement a lockdown for months, Sweden is still nowhere near matching the death rates reported in New York.

Using Sweden’s standard we’re still too early in the game to declare victory for one method or the other. Sweden’s authorities have always maintained that their strategy was much more of a long-term strategy. They are looking a year down the line and suggesting that both lockdown and nonlockdown countries will become more similar over time. In some countries, that certainly looks to be the case, although there is yet no indication of this in others. 

Reprinted with permission from Mises.org.