Speaking as a former harbor master, operator of cargo ships, and a military specialist on the Mideast, the current war in Iran is a fool’s errand. The much-ballyhooed Strait of Hormuz is only 33 odd kilometers wide and averages only 220 meters deep. It’s a bottom-scraper for the huge oil tankers that use it. What will happen if the Iranians scuttle one or two large tankers in these narrow waters? The Egyptians did so in 1956 in Suez and jammed up world oil traffic for months.
Someone in the Trump administration forgot to explain these topographical facts to the war-focused president and the hard right neo-conservatives around him. `Obliterating Iran’ (the White House’s favorite new term) may not be as easy as the pro-Israel neocons believe.
A US armada filled with troops is nearing the Strait of Hormuz. Landings by US Marines are expected to seize control of Kharg Island which is Iran’s principal hub of oil exports. I was there in the 1970’s. It’s a barren, ugly place covered by oil production infrastructure and angry sea birds. The US would bomb it flat – except that Iran threatens to go after key oil and water installations in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Iraq if they do. All are more or less US colonies, except Oman which is run by Britain’s Special Air Service.
Meanwhile South Yemen’s warlike Houthis tribesmen, who are Shia and thus pro-Iranian, have resumed attacks on the Bab-el-Mandeb, the narrow southern outlet of the Red Sea throwing marine traffic into chaos and further driving up the price of oil.
I’ve been with the Houthis. They are a wild and crazy bunch of pot-chewing tribesmen who don’t like outsiders, particularly the “Franks,’ as they call westerners, a term that dates back to the Crusades. We are now in a new Crusade commanded by the reborn state, Israel.
The majority of Americans are against the US-Iranian-Israeli war, particularly after it was revealed the first week of war cost some $11 billion in direct costs. As things stand, it appears this bill will soar as the war intensifies. This as the US prepares a ground war in the Bab-el-Mandeb.
It’s often said that Americans really only care about three things: God, guns and gasoline. The war in Arabia is making the cost of gas soar to $4.00 per gallon. There is fast-growing voter discontent over this price surge. It clearly undermines Trump’s core constituency in the Midwest and South. The White House even bombed Muslim Nigeria in an effort to pander to fundamentalist Christians.
Critics claim the current Gulf War was a massive effort to distract the media from the festering Epstein scandal that threatens to burst anew into flames. Wars are always a good way to divert public opinion from scandals.
But how long will the American public sustain Trump’s wars? Especially as the economy is winding down and the US national debt has reached $39 trillion and rising. The same applies to heavily indebted Israel.
War in Southern Arabia and the Gulf threatens to scupper the world economy. A key factor few have noticed is insurance. The mayhem in the Gulf and Bab-el-Mandeb has made nautical insurance soar. This upsurge could end up as being almost as destructive as the soaring cost of oil.
Reprinted with permission from EricMargolis.com.
