MAGA is riding high these days, convinced they’ve finally exorcised the neoconservatives who controlled the Republican Party for decades. Supposedly gone are the days of endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the trillion-dollar boondoggles sold as “spreading democracy”? Trump promised to drain that swamp, and his base believes he’s done it—putting America First and mocking the old guard like John McCain and Liz Cheney.
I hate to burst that bubble, but the neocons are far from dead. At best they’re playing possum. And President Trump’s looming military action against Venezuela could be their golden ticket back to power, co-opting the very movement that thought it had buried them.
Let’s start with the obvious: the demise of the neocons has been greatly exaggerated. Sure, their poster boys like Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney couldn’t win a presidential primary at the moment. But look who has staffed both Trump’s administrations. Mike Pompeo, the quintessential neocon hawk, served as Secretary of State the last time, pushing regime change agendas from Iran to North Korea.
Now we’ve got Marco Rubio in the same spot, a guy who’s never met a foreign entanglement he didn’t like. Rubio’s been a darling of the interventionist crowd since his Senate days, advocating for arming Syrian rebels and toppling dictators throughout the Middle East. Trump himself has been more restrained—no full-scale invasions on his watch yet—but that’s a far cry from the drastic change some in MAGA envisioned.
Trump hasn’t decreased overseas troop deployment on net whatsoever and the Pentagon budget has risen significantly in both of his administrations. As for Rubio, he’s trying to sound as America First as he can while serving the current boss but make no mistake: the push for action in Venezuela reeks of his influence, along with other holdovers like Elliott Abrams, who’s been knee-deep in Latin American meddling since the Reagan era. Throw in unconditional support for Israel’s wars, and you’ve got essentially a new Bush administration disguised as America First.
We must also remember that MAGA isn’t monolithic. There’s a vocal antiwar segment who support voices like Rand Paul or Tucker Carlson, warning that boots on the ground in Caracas would betray everything Trump ran on. But the polls tell a different story: a clear majority of Trump supporters back military intervention in Venezuela. According to a recent CBS News/YouGov survey, 66% of MAGA Republicans favor U.S. military action there, compared to just 47% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Overall American support hovers around 20%, but within the GOP base, it’s Trump’s framing as a quick hit against drugs and migration that’s winning the day. If this operation goes like George H.W. Bush’s 1989 invasion of Panama—swift, low casualties, Noriega in cuffs and headlines blaring victory—watch what happens. Bush’s approval skyrocketed to 80%, and it solidified a bloc of Republican voters hungry for more “decisive” action.
Panama was sold as anti-drug and pro-democracy, just like Venezuela today. A short, “successful” war could lure many America First voters back to the pre-Trump era, where every problem abroad demanded a military solution. The antiwar minority would be ridiculed and shouted down as having been wrong to doubt Trump, and the party would inch closer to its old interventionist self.
Part of the problem is that Trump’s anti-war platform was never as radical as the true American First crowd would like to believe. He talks a good game about ending “forever wars,” but he doesn’t question the core of the empire—the global standing army, the 800-plus bases warehousing hundreds of thousands of troops overseas, and the non-defensive use of them, as long as the war isn’t a “forever war.”
During his first term, the neocons in his cabinet persuaded him to bomb Syria twice based on dubious claims of chemical attacks by Assad on his own people. Was that an attack on America? Nope. It was classic neocon moralizing to win support for a regime change Israel wanted. And those troops stayed in Syria under the flimsy pretext of “protecting oil fields,” but really to support the regime change finally ticked off under Biden. Trump didn’t start new wars, but he didn’t really end the old ones either, despite his vociferous claims, and his base mostly gave him a pass.
Venezuela fits right into that pattern. Trump’s been gunning for regime change there since the early days of his first term, supporting neocon puppet Juan Guaidó as the “real president” after Maduro’s sham election in 2018. At Trump’s direction, Washington froze assets, imposed sanctions, and even floated military options back then.
It all fizzled when Guaidó couldn’t muster the muscle to oust Maduro, but the intent was clear: topple a socialist dictator, install a friendly government, and claim a win for “democracy.” Sound familiar? It’s the same script from Iraq to Libya, and now it’s back on the table, with warships in the Caribbean and talk of arresting Maduro on drug charges.
Then there’s the China angle, where MAGA is already primed for neocon co-optation. Trump’s base is all in on antagonism toward Beijing—tariffs, tech bans, and a confrontational military posture. Even the antiwar elements see China as the “real threat,” a rising power that Washington must “contain” to protect Americans.
But China isn’t a military menace; they’re just getting richer because they abandoned communism and aren’t squandering trillions on policing the globe. They’ve got one overseas base—Djibouti—while the U.S. has over 800, with over 200,000 troops staffing them. While by no means a laissez faire free market (neither is the U.S.), China’s growth is market-driven, not conquest-driven. Yet MAGA’s buying the hype, setting the stage for a new Cold War, complete with proxy fights in Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Venezuela could be the gateway drug: intervene there under the guise of fighting drugs and socialism, and suddenly containing China looks like the next logical step.
We also can’t ignore the other elephant in the room. Republicans still rely on tens of millions of Christian Zionists, the built-in neocon constituency I’ve written about before. These folks see U.S. support for Israel as biblical mandate, and they’re all for wars that benefit Tel Aviv, from Iraq to Syria to potential strikes on Iran. Trump’s unconditional backing of Israel keeps them loyal, but it also embeds neocon priorities deep in the party.
Put it all together, and MAGA looks like ripe fruit for the picking. If Trump green-lights war in Venezuela, the loyalists who back him no matter what will turn on the antiwar skeptics, ridiculing them as disloyal doubters of “dear leader.” Success breeds amnesia; a quick win erases promises of restraint. The next Republican contender—J.D. Vance or whoever—could run on Trump’s immigration and trade toughness but ditch the antiwar lip service entirely. Before you know it, we’re back to a full-blown Cold War 2.0, this time against China, with proxy wars galore to “contain” them, just like the old days with Russia.
The neocons don’t need to win elections outright; they just need to infiltrate and redirect. Venezuela isn’t just a sideshow—it’s their pathway back to the driver’s seat. MAGA must wake up before it’s too late.
Reprinted with permission from Tom Mullen Talks Freedom.
Subscribe and support here.
