The situation in Ukraine is becoming even more complicated.
The war on the frontline is going bad for Ukraine as is the war on infrastructure deep behind the contact line.
A corruption scandal is used to neuter President Zelenski. New power structures are set to evolve to further the execution of the war. President Trump is attempting to impose another peace effort while Europe finds that it lacks the money to finance Ukraine and the war.
There are at least seven cities which are falling or are destined to fall within the next few months.
Kupyansk is largely under Russian control. During the last days Russian forces took some 25% of Siversk. Pokrovsk is to 95% in Russian hands. Fighting in its encircled sister city Mirnograd is slowly coming to an end. The road between Pokrovske and Guliaipole has been taken. The later city is thus cut off from its main supply line and will soon be encircled.
The Ukrainian command had thrown in all its reserves to prevent the taking of Prokovsk and Kupiyansk. It was to no avail.
All regular Ukrainian brigades lack infantry. The constant Russian drone attacks have also taken a large toll on the logistic elements of those units.
General Syrski, the Ukrainian commander in chief, had set his bet on newly developed assault units to allow for offensive action while neglecting the general brigades which have to hold the lines. The weakened lines broke down when the Russian infiltrated them. Assault units were sent in and wasted on counterattacks that were supposed to stop further Russian breakthroughs but failed to have significant effects.
Defense fortifications and buildings can no longer protect the soldiers. Each day Russia is using 200 or more glide bombs to demolish them. Drones and artillery strikes follow. Russian infantry sneaks in to mop up remaining resistance.
It is a fairly slow process but it works for the Russians and is causing them a minimum of casualties.
The war on infrastructure far behind the line of contact is also preceding at a high pace. Ukraine had rejected the ceasefire on infrastructure previously agreed to by President Trump and President Putin. It has continued attacks on Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities with drones and missiles. They have so far done too little damage to slow down the Russian economy.
Russia has responded to those strikes by launching thousands of drones and missile against Ukrainian electricity and heating facilities causing up to 18 hours of blackout per day even in large Ukrainian cities. Another Russian target are railway depots where locomotives are maintained. Hundreds of them have been destroyed in such strikes.
The lack of electricity and mass transport have all but stopped large scale production of industrial goods. The economy suffers. Tax income decreases.
The corruption scandal around Timor Mindich which is involving friends and cabinet members of President Zelinski government is widening. Each day the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) is leaking more details of the case though any real proof of the actual corruption is still missing.
NABU and the whole anti-corruption vertical is a direct control element of the U.S. embassy in Kiev. In a speech held three days before the war in Ukraine started President Putin of Russia described it as such:
There is no independent judiciary in Ukraine. The Kiev authorities, at the West’s demand, delegated the priority right to select members of the supreme judicial bodies, the Council of Justice and the High Qualifications Commission of Judges, to international organisations.
In addition, the United States directly controls the National Agency on Corruption Prevention, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office and the High Anti-Corruption Court. All this is done under the noble pretext of invigorating efforts against corruption. All right, but where are the results? Corruption is flourishing like never before.
The FBI has a liaison officer within NABU and is directly involved in the current corruption investigation.
As for results of corruption investigation there are none. After eleven years of existence the anti corruption vertical has not managed to put even one person into jail:
The NABU and SAPO have never given a prison sentence to any influential figure it has accused of corruption. The NABU’s 2019 corruption investigation into incumbent president Petro Poroshenko resulted in just as many shocking revelations as the ongoing Myndich-gate, and just as many prison sentences – NONE.
The corruption scandal is just an instrument to put pressure on Zelenski. He has rejected to mobilize people under the age of 25 and allowed people under the age of 22 to leave the country. The war hawks in the U.S. and Europe want him to draft the young men and to use them as cannon fodder in their zeal to weaken Russia.
Zelenski is being politically neutered. The opposition in the Rada wants a place at the trough. It is demanding the resignation Andrei Yermak, Zelenski’s chief of office, and the whole Yermak controlled government under Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. A national unity government which includes the opposition is supposed to replace them. Parts of Zelenski’s Servant of the People party have defected and are now supporting the opposition’s demands.
Instead of being the center of political action President Zelenski might soon find himself being in a mere ceremonial position.
Even bigger movements are in the making. The U.S. is drafting a new plan to end(?) the war in Ukraine. (The Russian side says it has no knowledge of any such plans.) Today Trump’s envoy Steven Witkoff was supposed to meet Yermak and Zelenski in Istanbul to discuss the new plans but the meeting has been postponed.
Senior Pentagon officials have arrived in Kiev to discuss the military side of the issue:
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. Randy George became the highest-level Trump Pentagon officials to visit Ukraine when they arrived on an unannounced trip this week, as the U.S. moves to find a way to speed the end of the war.
Meanwhile Europe is finding out that it can not afford (archived) to pay for the war in Ukraine:
Underlying Kyiv’s coming cash crunch is a fundamental disconnect between Europe’s undoubtedly sincere desire to support Ukraine and the reality that the UK, France and Germany are facing serious fiscal crises of their own. Promises to support Ukraine are of a piece with European NATO members’ pledges to commit 5 percent of their GDP to defense spending by the end of the decade – both declarations are, for the most part, unfunded.
…
The story so far of Europe’s engagement with Ukraine has been one of big pledges followed by considerably smaller deeds – and that was before Trump took away Uncle Sam’s billions. Unfortunately for Kyiv, there’s little to suggest that Europe has the means or the will to actually provide Ukraine as much as it needs, for as long as it needs.
Zelenski, and those who support to continue the war, have lost touch with reality. The Ukrainian army lacks morale, weapons and soldiers. The front is getting breached in several places. The countries vital infrastructure is getting destroyed. There is political upheaval and no money to continue the war.
The only sane way out of the chaos is to call Moscow and to agree on its conditions.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
