Drawing on Dr. Kubler-Ross’ five stages of grief, the West is slowly coming to grips with the reality that Ukraine is a lost cause and moving through the five-stage grief cycle. Until recently, US pundits and policymakers were firmly planted in the first-stage: denial. But an article in Friday’s New York Times — Ukraine Slows Firing of Missiles Into Russia as Trump Prepares to Take Office — signals that the US is doing the anger phase and headed towards bargaining.
As I read the opening lines of the article, my brain was humming Frank Sinatra’s iconic ballad, My Way:
And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend, I’ll say it clear
I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain
I’ve lived a life that’s full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more than this
I did it my way[Verse 2]
Regrets, I’ve had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption
I planned each charted course
Each careful step along the byway
And more, much more than this
I did it my way — i.e., “Regrets, I’ve had a few.
We would have to change the lyrics. There are not “a few regrets.” Heavens, no. There are a ton of regrets. The Times’ writers begin by acknowledging that Western wonder weapons were a bust:
In some ways, what has happened with the ATACMS — pronounced “attack ’ems” — is the story of what has happened with other Western weaponry in the war. Ukraine pressed for months and even years to get Western weapons: HIMARS rocket launchers, Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets.
But by the time the West granted access to these weapons, Ukraine had lost more ground. And no weapon has been a silver bullet. Western officials also say Ukraine has relied too much on help from the West and hasn’t done enough to bolster its own war effort, especially in mobilizing enough troops.
But their reporting is misleading — they blame Ukraine’s impending defeat on the tardy delivery of weapons and Ukraine’s dependence on the West. That is not why Ukraine is losing and destined for defeat. Not only did Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) shred three different iterations of Ukraine’s NATO-trained-and-supplied army, it also exposed the West’s hollowed-out defense industry, which proved unable to produce and supply war-time quantities of artillery shells, artillery, Patriot missiles, HIMARS and ATACMS.
Once the first Ukrainian army was eviscerated, Ukraine entered a downward spiral of having to rush untrained reserves to that front. Without having adequate training for new recruits and newly-formed units before they were thrust into battle, Ukraine lost its ability to field a force capable of maneuver and one qualified to effectively use the NATO weapons that were flooding Ukrainian supply bases.
Remember the spin in October, when the Biden team and the NATO allies were supposedly deciding whether to give Ukraine missiles capable of reaching 200 miles into Russia? They came up with the North-Korean-troops-in-Kursk lie to justify their subsequent decision to grant Ukraine permission to launch ATACMs into Russia. But this was a lie:
In the spring, President Biden relented. The administration shipped Ukraine as many as 500 missiles from Pentagon stockpiles, the U.S. officials said. While Ukraine couldn’t use them in Russia, they fired them at targets in eastern Ukrainian territories controlled by Russia and in Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014 — aiming at hardened command and control posts, weapons storage areas and some other bunkers.
The US intelligence community (I believe it was the CIA) fabricated the claim that Russia, suffering from massive casualties, begged North Korea for reinforcements and little Kim reportedly obliged. Then, with thousands of North Korean soldiers allegedly fighting in Kursk, the Biden administration gave Zelensky the green light:
The U.S. officials said Mr. Biden had justified granting permission on Nov. 17 to use the missiles in Russia because Moscow brought North Korean soldiers into the war.
There were caveats, though. U.S. officials said the weapons would initially be used mainly against Russian and North Korean troops in the Kursk region of western Russia, where Ukraine was trying to hold onto territory after a surprise Ukrainian offensive in August.
This was nothing but fabulist theater. I prefer Ray McGovern’s more technical term — Male Bovine Excrement (MBE)!
We get some more MBE further down in the NY Times piece:
On Nov. 21, Russia launched its new hypersonic ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, or “hazelnut tree,” at a military facility in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. That was seen as a warning that Russian could hit any part of Europe with the new missile, a message to Europe and America about possible consequences.
Six days later, the Russian general who was the architect of the Ukraine invasion called Mr. Biden’s top military adviser to discuss concerns about escalation, insisting that its missile test had been long planned.
After that Nov. 27 call, Ukraine didn’t fire ATACMS or Storm Shadows for two weeks. Russia also launched few missile or drone attacks into Ukraine, although Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, threatened to launch the Оreshnik at the center of Кyiv if Ukraine didn’t stop using ATACMS in Russia.
The Times‘ writers repeat the US account of General Gerasimov’s phone call to Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charlie Brown that first appeared in print on December 6:
The NYT newspaper was the first to report on the conversation. According to her sources in the Pentagon, Gerasimov called “six days after the strike on Ukraine by the Hazel hypersonic missile.” During the conversation, he allegedly stated that the launch of the rocket was planned in advance and is not a reaction of Russia to the use by Ukraine of American ATACMS missiles on the territory of Russia. Let’s just say that Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that this is exactly the response to the use of ATACMS. Let’s remember this first lie.
It was also noted that Gerasimov and Brown discussed “global and regional security issues, including the situation around the conflict in Ukraine,” and “how to deal with concerns about the escalation of the conflict between the two countries.”
While Gerasimov and Brown may have had a sensible chat, the rest of the Biden team appears intent on lashing out trying to hurt the Russians during the waning days of the failed Biden Presidency. Russian intelligence reports that the US and the UK are trying to use Islamic proxies to attack Russian military forces in Syria:
The United States and the United Kingdom are preparing terrorist attacks against Russian military bases in Syrian territory, Sputnik reported on Saturday, citing statements issued by the press bureau of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
According to the SVR, ISIL field commanders have been supplied with attack drones to target Russian military bases in Syria, further stating that the outgoing US administration and British leadership aim to hinder efforts to stabilize the situation in Syria. . . .
The aim, according to the SVR, is to maintain US-UK dominance and achieve their geopolitical objectives in the region “based on the odious concept of a rules-based order.” However, the bigger plot is challenged by the Russian presence on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, which still majorly preserves regional stability.
I do not know if this is a legitimate bit of intel picked up by the SVR or if it is a Russian information operation directed against the US and the UK. Both are plausible. At a minimum, I believe the SVR is sending the West a clear message — any attacks on Russian forces still in Syria will be viewed as attacks by the West. I do not think the Biden team is in any position to influence events in Syria beyond the mess it has already made.
Notwithstanding early jubilation in the West over the fall of Assad and the attending belief that this was a major blow to Russia, I think Putin and his generals are happy to sit back and watch Turkiye, the US and Israel try to figure out how to eat the shit sandwich they have made for themselves in Syria. The Russians appear content to observe the malevolent clown show unfolding in the territory formerly known as Syria. Putin probably only has a few regrets.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
