President Joe Biden, or whoever is thinking for him, is doing his best to make peace in Ukraine less likely:
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied missiles to strike deeper inside Russia, easing limitations on the longer range weapons ..
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Putin has warned that Moscow could provide long-range weapons to others to strike Western targets if NATO allies allow Ukraine to use their arms to attack Russian territory.
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The longer-range missiles are likely to be used in response to North Korea’s decision to support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to one of the people familiar with the development.
The ATACMS missiles Ukraine had so far been allowed to fire, mostly against Crimea, have been carriers of cluster ammunition with a reach of some 160 kilometer.
We do not know yet if the new authorized use for ATACMS munition on targets within Russia is only relevant for the cluster ammunition missile type or for high explosive ATACMS missiles with a reach of 300 kilometer.
However, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has correctly pointed out that ANY use of ATACMS requires the involvement of NATO (U.S/UK) assets for acquiring the targeting data and for planing and programming the missile’s mission.
Any use of ATACMS onto Russian proper is thus an act of war by NATO against the Russian Federation. The Russian response to such will be appropriate but may well surface in a theater far from Ukraine.
The military usefulness of ATACMS attacks on Russia is in doubt:
The overall supply of ATACMS missiles is short, so U.S. officials in the past have questioned whether they could give Ukraine enough to make a difference.
The ostensible reason for allowing the use of ATACMS is the defense of the Ukrainian troops which have invaded the Kursk oblast of Russia.
During that invasion the Ukrainian units went further into Russia than their usual 20 kilometer deep artillery cover allowed for. To further support them HIMARS missile launchers with GMLRS missiles and a reach of 70 kilometer were pulled to the front. Only a few of them survived their service near the Russian border. During August and September of 2024 the Russian forces wacked six or seven of those. (Just today another was reported to have been destroyed.)
ATACMS are no wonder weapons. The running tally of the Russian ministry of defense reports lists 235 successful interceptions of ATACMS missiles.
Using ATACMS to support the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kursk will make it slightly more difficult for Russia to eliminate the incursion. Russia has said that it will not negotiate until Ukrainian troops have left its country. To prolong the existence of the bridgehead will thus prevent a fast peace agreement which president-elect Donald Trump may have in mind.
To further argue for the deployment of ATACMS against Russia the Biden administration is pointing to the North Korean bogeyman:
North Korea has provided thousands of troops to Russia to help Moscow try to claw back land in the Kursk border region that Ukraine seized this year. ..
As many as 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, according to U.S., South Korean and Ukrainian assessments.
‘Assessments’ are analyst estimates for which there is no evidence.
Nothing has been shown that would provide that there are any North Korean soldiers in Russia. The claim that a division sized contingent of North Korean soldiers is preparing to fight in the Kursk region was made by Ukraine only after a U.S. think-tank had proposed to use it as an item of larger propaganda campaign.
Russia has sufficient forces to eliminate the Ukrainian troops on its ground. It is highly doubtful that any Russian command would agree to include North Korean units in any Russian operation. Thus the ‘North Korean soldiers’ propaganda claim continues to be just that.
The incoming President Donald Trump has publicly said that he will seek to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. The Biden administration has not only helped to start that war but is seeking to prolong it as long as possible.
Militarily the use of ATACMS against targets in Russia will not provide any significant advantage to the Ukrainian forces. There is no way left for them to sustain or win in this war. Their defeat is inevitable.
But allowing the use of ATACMS against Russia will escalate the war into a new dimension. It will prolong the path to any peace agreement. This to the sole benefit of those who are politically and financially invested in this war.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
