The visit by the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and special representative of the Russian president for investment and economic cooperation Kirill Dmitriev to Washington on April 2-3, the first such visit by a senior Kremlin official since 2022, appears to have been a modest achievement whose productive outcome will be crucial in the rest of US-Russia relations.
If President Vladimir Putin’s choice fell on Dmitriev for such a hugely important pathbreaking mission, that has been for sound reasons. An enduring settlement in Ukraine hinges on the stabilisation of the Russian-American ties which is deeply flawed due to the meagre content of it in substance.
Putin and US President Donald Trump share a conviction that the latter’s MAGA project offers a rare window of opportunity to couple Russia’s vast resources with the regeneration of the American economy in a new order where geopolitics will no longer be the pivot.
In a historical perspective, this involves a formidable challenge insofar as it is nothing short of the rollback of a century of adversarial mindset, on both sides, that began in the period 1918-1920 when the US, Britain, France, and Japan sent thousands of troops from the Baltics to northern Russia to Siberia to Crimea—and despatched massive millions of financial aid and military supplies to the anti-communist White Russians—in an abortive attempt to strangle Bolshevism in its crib.
The Biden administration had already sanctioned Dmitriev after spotting him as “a known Putin ally.” But Trump sees that fatal flaw in Dmitriev’s DNA as actually qualifying him to be an excellent counterpart to his own special envoy Steve Witkoff, the billionaire businessman and close friend of the US president. Dmitriev is a former banker who studied at Stanford and Harvard and worked at McKinsey and Goldman and is familiar with the ways of Wall Street where he has old friends and associates. White House appreciated Dmitriev’s role in the release of the American prisoner Marc Fogel in February in a deal negotiated by Witkoff.
Unsurprisingly, “key members of the US administration” received Dmitriev, including Witkoff. Dmitriev’s posts in the social media have been in an upbeat tone, signalling that at the very least, the nascent US-Russian dialogue is on track. The Russian reports mentioned that Dmitriev’s agenda included the possibility of resumption of direct flights between the two countries, the stalled ceasefire in Ukraine, and, importantly, cooperation in the Arctic as well as in rare earths.
Meanwhile, in a significant gesture, even as Dmitriev hit the ground in DC, Trump left out Russia from the list of countries against which new tariffs were announced on “Liberation Day” (April 2).
Equally, it transpires that American companies have applied for participation in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) due to be held in St. Petersburg on May 19-20. Traditionally, Putin personally interacts with the foreign participants in the SPIEF event.
Dmitriev took stock of all this probably when he told reporters in DC that his meetings with administration officials constituted a step forward. “I would say that today and yesterday we made three steps forward on a large number of issues,” Dmitriev pointed out. He acknowledged that issues have been piling up for three years, as there was virtually no communication between Russia and the US. “Therefore, the process of dialogue, the process of resolution will take some time, but it is definitely positive and constructive,” he said.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov hinted on Friday that the forthcoming second round of discussions between the Russian and US delegations will focus on simplifying the visa process, improving the mechanisms of mutual travel and resolving issues of financial transfers for diplomatic missions.
To be sure, the elephant in the room is the West’s “sanctions from hell” against Russia. Even an affectionate tweak of sanctions for Russia’s exports of agricultural products and fertiliser meets with resistance from the European Union.
The Russian-American dialogue continues to face attempts at sabotage by Ukraine and the EU as well as certain groups within the US who simply do not want any normalisation with Russia, including influential lawmakers such as Senator Lindsey Graham who is otherwise a staunch political supporter of Trump.
While in DC, Dmitriev remarked that “numerous forces interested in maintaining tension” stand in the way of restoring dialogue. He said they deliberately distort Russia’s position and try to disrupt any steps towards US-Russia cooperation, “sparing neither money nor resources for this.” (See a vicious attack on Dmitriev’s visit by the CNN here.)
The Ukrainian leadership sees the US-Russia negotiations as posing an existential threat. Their belligerence and attempts to sabotage the negotiation process are directly linked to their main agenda of willy-nilly retaining the levers of power in Kiev.
Against such heavy odds, it is appreciable that Washington and Moscow are still on the ball in regard of the full restoration of the functioning of diplomatic missions — although the negotiations on the Black Sea Initiative at the recent Riyadh meeting are on hold.
On the other hand, at the last summit of European leaders a week ago, rare calls were heard for the EU to reach out to Russia for dialogue. The Finnish President Alexander Stubb suggested that France or Britain should enter into negotiations with Putin. Slovakia and Hungary have traditionally advocated such a pathway.
This kite-flying is an important enough signal that the matrix may no longer be seen in binary terms — as confrontation between the West and Russia — but creeping toward a modus operandi of “every man for himself.” If Europe sees that sanctions continue to harm the EU itself, it is possible that they will reconsider old positions. The point is, the ice may break any moment.
In the final analysis, the US remains a significant economic player in the transatlantic grid and the western system including the EU, functions as Washington’s creation, and the Trump administration is capable of exerting pressure on Brussels.
Therefore, the question narrows down to how far Trump’s team shares the president’s vision of friendship and camaraderie with Putin at a personal level and a constructive engagement by the erstwhile rivals in a spirit of cooperation. To a keen observer, Secretary of State Marco Rubio who harbours presidential ambitions, already seems the odd man out.
Indeed, despite the change of administration, some US government officials, even from the Republican Party, are still opposed to dialogue. Maybe their tone has softened a bit but there’s no sign yet of ‘new thinking’. All these are disturbing signs that a full-fledged Russian-American détente remains a long haul.
Above all, as if the Russia policy shift is not complicated enough, Trump has also got to grapple with the Iran question where a deadline is expected by October and a spectre of confrontation haunts both Washington and Iran unless a deal appears in the next 3-4 months.
But then, “Sweet are the uses of adversity, which, like the toad, ugly and venomous, wears yet a precious jewel in his head.” Adversity, as Shakespeare suggested, often conceals valuable lessons and opportunities for growth. Even in challenging times, there is wisdom to be gained and strength to be found.
The ‘known known’ is that Putin commands immense respect in Tehran. And the ‘known unknown’ is, how far Russia can help in a mediatory mission to wrap up a US-Iran deal. Put differently, the ‘unknown unknown’ is, will Trump seek Putin’s helping hand?
Anything is possible in Trump’s revolutionary mind. After all, the administration has stopped demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. This tendentious item is missing from Washington’s new list of conditions for the authorities in Damascus.
Reprinted with permission from Indian Punchline.
