The diplomatic tango between Washington and Moscow is underway, but Trump’s promise to bring a quick end to the war in Ukraine on Trump’s terms appears more unlikely with each passing day. Prior to the conversation between the two leaders during the last four days, diplomats representing Moscow and Washington in their respective embassies did the detail work of arranging the phone diplomacy. But, according to Borizzkman, there were two, not one, conversations (this is Borizzkman’s concise eight-minute video presenting the latest developments):
Putin’s position is firm and unyielding — No ceasefire or freeze-in-place, recognize the four former Ukrainian oblasts as Russian states, and dismantle Ukraine’s military so that it could never join NATO. The conversations likely took place last week, perhaps as early as 5 February. Why? Because we learned on 6 February that the US asked the UK to take over the chair of the Ukraine defense group, which is set to meet tomorrow (Tuesday) in Brussels. Trump is sending a message to both Putin and NATO — i.e., Ukraine is no longer viewed as a US priority and that Europe is responsible for pulling Ukraine’s chestnuts from the fire.
This message was reinforced on Sunday when Trump’s National Security advisor, Michael Waltz, said the following:
And I think an underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward. President Trump is going to end it, and then, in terms of security guarantees, that will squarely going to be with the Europeans. . . .
Including the future of US aid to Ukraine. We need to recruit those costs and that will be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earth, their natural resources and their oil and gas and also buying ours.
Although it appears that Uncle Sam’s Sugar Shack is now closed for future business with Ukraine, Waltz and Donald Trump still labor under the mistaken belief that they have leverage over Russia because they believe it is suffering catastrophic losses and a weakening economy. According to Waltz:
Russia’s economy is not doing well. He [Trump – ed.] is prepared to tax, to tariff, to sanction… We need to get all sides of the table to end this war. And this has come up in conversations with President Xi, Prime Minister Modi, with leaders across the Middle East. Everybody is ready to help President Trump in this war. Let’s get both sides of the table and negotiate.
Wrong on the economy Mike:
In 2024, Russia’s economy experienced growth, with the rate reported at approximately 4%. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated that the Russian economy grew by 4.1% in 2024, which is slightly better than the official forecast of 3.9%. Multiple sources indicate growth in 2023, with GDP increasing by 3.6%35. The Russian government estimated Russia’s GDP growth to total 4% last year10. The OECD estimates that Russia’s GDP grew by 3.9%.
Trump and his foreign policy team are wrongly assuming that Putin is desperate for a deal because, according to the bogus intel being fed to them, Russia is hurting and looking for a way to alleviate the pain. I am sure that Putin and his team will be setting that record straight.
Trump also is wrong in believing that he can enlist the leaders of China and India (as well as leaders across the Middle East) to pressure Putin to end the war. That might be a possibility if Trump was showering Xi and Modi with praise and promises of strong economic relations, but Trump is doing the opposite — he is threatening both and imposing economic sanctions. . . not exactly a good method for winning friends and influencing people.
At the very time that Trump is trying to do a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, Trump is endorsing Netanyahu’s plan to blow up the ceasefire agreement and renew attacks on the Palestinians in Gaza. While Trump is smart in some of the domestic policies he is pursuing, he is exposing his ass with his obtuse grasp of the situation in Gaza and how US actions in that region shape Russia’s distrust of Trump and his policies.
I discussed some of these issues today with Judge Nap. A good way to start the week.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
