Has Putin Learned the Lessons of the Battle of Debaltseve and Minsk II?

I will answer my question right up front: Yes! The reaction of the West, especially that of Donald Trump, to Russia’s current offensive all along the line of contact, is reminiscent of the panic that seized the West in 2015 following Ukraine’s loss in the Battle of Debaltseve. That battle came about in part because of the failure of Minsk I, and was the impetus for Minsk II.

So what does this have to do with the current situation in Ukraine? I believe that the primary reason Donald Trump dramatically shortened his 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to 10 days, was because of the dire situation Ukraine now faces all along the line of contact. Debaltseve was just one battle, which Ukraine lost. The current battles underway are far larger and encompass the following agglomerations:

Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): Intense battles are ongoing near Toretsk, including Ukrainian advances within Katerynivka and Shcherbynivka, and Russian advances in nearby areas such as Rusyn Yar and Poltavka. Russian and Ukrainian forces are contesting several settlements along key axes northwest and west of Toretsk. Elements of Russia’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by artillery and drones, are actively engaged in the area.

Pokrovsk: Pokrovsk faces concentrated Russian assaults and is currently a focal point of fighting, with Russian forces intensifying attacks across the front. Ukrainian defenders confront urgent threats within and around the city as Russia adapts new offensive tactics.

Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Russia recently captured Chasiv Yar, a heavily fortified eastern city. This victory allows Russia to target Ukraine’s so-called “fortress belt,” a network of defensive strongholds, and opens further offensive opportunities in the region.

Zaporizhia Region: Russia maintains high-intensity bombardments—over 400 airstrikes on 16 settlements—leading to heavy casualties and destruction, marking continued contestation in this southern front.

Let’s first review the importance of the Battle of Debaltseve, which was fought between January and February 2015, and marked a major setback for Ukraine the Donbas region. Its importance stems from several key factors:

1. Strategic Location: Debaltseve was a critical transportation hub, particularly for its railway junction connecting the Russian-backed separatist-controlled cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Control over Debaltseve allowed influence over supply lines and movement in the region, making it a focal point for both Ukrainian forces and Russian/separatist forces.
2. Ceasefire Violations and Minsk II: The battle occurred during a period of intense fighting despite the Minsk Protocol (September 2014), which aimed to establish a ceasefire. The escalation at Debaltseve exposed the fragility of the ceasefire and led to the signing of the Minsk II agreement on February 12, 2015, as international mediators (France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia) sought to halt the violence. However, fighting continued even after the agreement, undermining trust in the peace process.
3. Military and Political Implications: The battle resulted in a significant defeat for Ukrainian forces, who were encircled and forced to withdraw under heavy pressure from Russian-backed separatists, supported by regular Russian troops (as reported by Ukrainian and Western sources). The loss highlighted Ukraine’s military vulnerabilities at the time, including issues with coordination, logistics, and equipment, while boosting the morale and territorial control of separatist forces.
4. Human Cost and Humanitarian Impact: The battle caused significant casualties, with estimates of hundreds killed (both military and civilian) and thousands displaced. The intense shelling and fighting devastated Debaltseve, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the Donbas region and drawing international attention to the plight of civilians caught in the conflict.
5. Geopolitical Ramifications: The battle underscored Russia’s direct involvement in the conflict, as Western governments and organizations like NATO cited evidence of Russian military equipment and personnel in Debaltseve. This intensified sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia, further straining its relations with the West and solidifying Ukraine’s push for international support.
6. Long-Term Impact on the Conflict: The fall of Debaltseve consolidated separatist control over key areas of the Donbas, setting a precedent for the protracted, low-intensity conflict that followed. It also shaped Ukraine’s subsequent military reforms and increased its reliance on Western military aid to counter Russian aggression.

We subsequently learned that Minsk II was a sham devised by the West to permit Ukraine to rebuild its military force. Angela Merkel made statements about the Minsk II agreement in interviews in 2022, specifically in June and December. In a June 2022 interview with Der Spiegel, she indicated that the Minsk talks helped Ukraine “buy time” to strengthen itself against Russia. She elaborated in a December 2022 interview with Die Zeit, stating, “The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. Ukraine used this time to become stronger, as you can see today. The Ukraine of 2014/15 is not the Ukraine of today.”

Following Merkel’s confession of the real purpose of Minsk II, Vladimir Putin publicly admitted that he had been deceived by the Minsk II agreements in statements made in November and December 2022. In a conversation cited in the book, Vladimir Putin. From the Annals of the XXI Century, Putin described the Minsk agreements as “nothing but sheer deception” and said that Western leaders used the process to buy time and prepare Ukraine for war. In December 2022, Putin elaborated that “no one was going to fulfill the Minsk agreements,” admitting, “It turns out that they also deceived us, and the point was only to pump Ukraine with weapons and prepare for combat operations. Apparently, we got our bearings late, to be honest.”

Now we have Donald Trump begging for a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin. While some in Russia have expressed fears that Putin is once again being offered the Charlie Brown meme of kicking the football, I think Mr. Putin has learned his lesson and is not going to reverse his stated policy. While many in the West are pushing the narrative that Putin will give up claims to Zaporizhia and Kherson, that is not true. Those two former oblasts of Ukraine are now, according to the Russian Constitution, legally part of Russia. Putin does not have the authority to change that fact without legislative action by the Russian Duma.

Given this fact, I believe the deal that Putin will offer to Donald Trump is a halt to military operations in Sumy and Kharkiv if, and only if, Ukraine withdraws its military forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson; that NATO end all military support for Ukraine; and that the United States agrees to negotiate based on the draft treaty Putin presented to Joe Biden in December 2022. If Trump does not take that deal, the war will continue until Russia consolidates all territory east of the Dnieper River.

Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.