Trying to figure out what Trump and Netanyahu are going to do vis-a-vis Iran is like trying to read tea leaves in a monster hurricane. Let me start with the facts, i.e., what we know to be true:
- The United States has moved a massive amount of combat air assets into the region, along with support aircraft and maintenance technicians… This is on a scale last seen in 2003 prior to the invasion of Iraq.
- The logistics and air bridges are still in full swing, with no sign of slowing down.
- Air Force planners prefer to conduct air operations (a nice euphemism for starting a war) when there is no or very little moonlight (I know, I know… With modern avionics a moonless night no longer provides the guaranteed protection that was the case 30 years ago). The next cycle of no moonlight falls in mid-March. If planners get their way, there will be no attack until mid-March.
- Oman announced today that the US and Russian mediators will meet this Friday to continue indirect talks with Oman playing the role of mediator.
- Donald Trump is under enormous pressure from Israel, as well as Christian and Jewish Zionists, to launch the attack as soon as possible, and from military leaders who fear that an extended deployment will degrade US capabilities to carry out a successful operation against Iran unless action is taken as soon as possible.
- At the same time, President Trump is getting a strong push back from Arab and Muslim leaders in the region to avoid using military force against Iran and to secure a negotiated agreement.
- Donald Trump’s proposed attack on Iran is strongly opposed by more than 70% of US voters.
- Iran remains willing to make a deal that will guarantee it is not building a nuclear weapon and will limit enrichment of uranium to levels that cannot produce fissile material needed to construct a bomb.
- Russia and China have provided Iran with an unprecedented level of military equipment and intelligence. Did that fact compel the US to step on the brakes and work out a deal with Iran?
Rumors are flying around social media that Trump is going to order the attack as soon as Monday, February 23. But is he willing to do that on the even of his State of the Union address, which is scheduled for Tuesday?
I know that Trump is supposed to meet with an influential supporter on Monday and that person is going to warn the President that his entire agenda will be sabotaged if he goes to war with Iran.
This entire affair is shaping up like a season of Game of Thrones, except there are no dragons and no nudity. Did Ambassador Mike Huckabee’s outrageous comment to Tucker Carlson — i.e., that Israel has the divine right to occupy all land from the Nile to the Euphrates River — create such a firestorm of outrage among the Arab and Muslim nations in the region that the planned attack had to be called off?
I believe Trump will not order an attack on Iran until he is given assurances that the attack will be quick and effective… Getting bogged down in a war of attrition carries an enormous risk for Trump and the US military because of the weak supply chain for producing essential weapons, such as air defense missiles, and the fact that China is withholding key minerals, such as palladium, which are needed to produce key weapons like the Tomahawk cruise missile.
So I leave it to you… What do you think is going to happen?
