In 2023 the situation in Ukraine had developed into what looked like a stalemate. But 2024 proved that bigger things had been in the making. In 2024, after taking Avdivka, the Russian forces began to deliberately and steadily move forward.
The introduction of FAB bombs, precision ammunition delivered from airplanes flying outside Ukrainian air defenses, broke the Ukrainian defense fortifications. Russian infantry, covered by ample artillery and with the help of drones, infiltrated and overwhelmed Ukrainian lines. An ever increasing shortage of Ukrainian troops helped to increase the tempo of progress.
Diversion action, by Russia in the Kharkiv region and by Ukraine itself due to its attack into the Kursk region, further weakened the Ukrainian lines. A high number of casualties, unmotivated troops and a lack of heavy equipment have since diminished the Ukrainian forces. The downward spiral the Ukrainian army is currently in is likely to continue.
During the last six month the main frontline in south-east Ukraine has changed significantly.
July 1 2024
Six cities on the above July 1 map that are or were of military-logistic importance are marked with blue numbers.
The current map below is showing that these have either been captured or are in danger of immediate falling.
January 1 2025
No. 1 in the south is Velyka Novosilka. It is currently in an operational encirclement as all major roads leading to it are under Russian control. The only supply route left is through muddy fields to the northwest. Velyka Novosilka, the Ukrainian anchor of the southern front, is likely to fall within the next two weeks.
No. 2 is Vuhledar (Ugledar) which was heavily fortified and well defended. It fell on October 1 after the Ukrainian leadership failed to support its battered defenders. As there were no further major settlements north of Vuhledar the frontline has since moved significantly further.
No. 3, Kurakhove, was the logistic center for the Ukrainian troops holding the fortified positions west of Donetsk city. It fell last night. The main danger for people living in Donetsk city has thus been removed. There is little westward of Kurakhove that can stop a rapid Russian movement beyond it.
No. 5, the city of Toretsk has dominated the Ukrainian positions along the north-west corner of the Donetsk People Republic (DPR). It has been reported that it also fell last night. No 6, Chasiv Yar, is about to follow. Yesterday Russian troops captured its main railroad station.
With the fall of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar the most fortified lines in the north east of the DPR will have been removed. The Russian forces will proceed from there to develop a westward pincer attack towards Konstantynivka.
At the center of the south to north bow spanning from No 1, Velyka Novosilka, to No 6, Chasiv Yar, lies No 4, Pokrovsk. It was and still is the central logistic point for the Ukrainian forces on the whole Donetsk frontline. As the city is heavily fortified the Russian forces will avoid to directly attack it. They instead are trying to envelope the city from the south and the west. When they manage to cut the railway and road connections between Dnipro to Pokrovsk the later will be ripe for their taking.
The only Ukrainian ‘success’ of the year, the incursion into the Kursk oblast of Russia, has turned into the catastrophe that even pro-Ukrainian observers had feared. It did little to divert Russian forces from the eastern frontline but consumed many Ukrainian units and a huge share of their heavy equipment. By now the size of the initial incursion has been halved. Sudzha, the only Russian city the Ukrainians hold, will fall soon. The militarily insignificant rest of the incursion will be difficult to keep.
The incoming U.S. president Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine in a short time. However, the only way to achieve that is to concede to all the demands the Russian side has made. The western pro-war factions and the deep-state will do their best to prevent that. They still demand a maximum pressure campaign to bring Russia to its knees.
But every measure they plan to introduced has already been tried. A further increase of sanctions on Russia will only further weaken U.S. allies. There are no more ‘wonder-weapons’ in U.S. arsenals that Russia can not immediately counter. Russia is outproducing western weapon manufacturers in all categories.
The Ukrainian army is on the verge of falling apart. The economy of Ukraine is faltering. Its people have lost the will to fight.
As the U.S., and NATO, are likely unwilling to concede their defeat the war will have to be decided on the battle field. In 2025 the Russian forces will continue to destroy the Ukrainian army. They will proceed to take whatever is needed to guarantee Russia’s strategic security.
A year from now the discussions in western countries may well be about sending their own troops to the Ukrainian frontline. But the prospect of massive losses of their own soldiers is likely to prevent their populations from agreeing to that.
The west will concede because, aside from nuclear war, it will be the only option that is left on the table.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
